id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-000282-phepjf55	Hsieh, Ying-Hen	On epidemic modeling in real time: An application to the 2009 Novel A (H1N1) influenza outbreak in Canada	2010-11-05		.txt	text/plain	4027	166	48	BACKGROUND: Management of emerging infectious diseases such as the 2009 influenza pandemic A (H1N1) poses great challenges for real-time mathematical modeling of disease transmission due to limited information on disease natural history and epidemiology, stochastic variation in the course of epidemics, and changing case definitions and surveillance practices. We sought to address three critical issues in real time disease modeling for newly emerged 2009 pH1N1: (i) to estimate the basic reproduction number; (ii) to identify the main turning points in the epidemic curve that distinguish different phases or waves of disease; and (iii) to predict the future course of events, including the final size of the outbreak in the absence of intervention. We fit both the single-and multi-phase Richards models to Canadian cumulative 2009 pH1N1 cumulative case data, using publicly available disease onset dates obtained from the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) website [10, 11] .	./cache/cord-000282-phepjf55.txt	./txt/cord-000282-phepjf55.txt