id sid tid token lemma pos cord-013977-xb0r2axf 1 1 key key JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 1 2 : : : cord-013977-xb0r2axf 1 3 cord-013977-xb0r2axf cord-013977-xb0r2axf NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 1 4 authors author NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 1 5 : : : cord-013977-xb0r2axf 1 6 Heng Heng NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 1 7 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 1 8 Kevin Kevin NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 1 9 ; ; : cord-013977-xb0r2axf 1 10 Althaus Althaus NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 1 11 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 1 12 Christian Christian NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 1 13 L. L. NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 1 14 title title NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 1 15 : : : cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 2 approximately approximately RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 3 universal universal JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 4 shapes shape NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 5 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 6 epidemic epidemic NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 7 curves curve NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 8 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 9 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 10 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 11 - - HYPH cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 12 Exposed exposed JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 13 - - HYPH cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 14 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 15 - - HYPH cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 16 Recovered recovered JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 17 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 18 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 19 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 20 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 21 date date NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 22 : : : cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 23 2020 2020 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 24 - - HYPH cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 25 11 11 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 26 - - HYPH cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 27 09 09 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 28 journal journal NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 2 29 : : : cord-013977-xb0r2axf 3 1 Sci Sci NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 3 2 Rep Rep NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 3 3 DOI DOI NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 3 4 : : : cord-013977-xb0r2axf 4 1 10.1038 10.1038 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 4 2 / / SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 4 3 s41598 s41598 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 4 4 - - HYPH cord-013977-xb0r2axf 4 5 020 020 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 4 6 - - HYPH cord-013977-xb0r2axf 4 7 76563 76563 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 4 8 - - SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 4 9 8 8 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 4 10 sha sha NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 4 11 : : : cord-013977-xb0r2axf 4 12 e72a7452c7bca0963f650715c96c293704bffee5 e72a7452c7bca0963f650715c96c293704bffee5 NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 4 13 doc_id doc_id CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 4 14 : : : cord-013977-xb0r2axf 4 15 13977 13977 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 4 16 cord_uid cord_uid NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 4 17 : : : cord-013977-xb0r2axf 5 1 xb0r2axf xb0r2axf JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 5 2 Compartmental compartmental JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 5 3 transmission transmission NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 5 4 models model NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 5 5 have have VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 5 6 become become VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 5 7 an an DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 5 8 invaluable invaluable JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 5 9 tool tool NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 5 10 to to TO cord-013977-xb0r2axf 5 11 study study VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 5 12 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 5 13 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 5 14 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 5 15 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 5 16 diseases disease NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 5 17 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 6 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 6 2 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 6 3 - - HYPH cord-013977-xb0r2axf 6 4 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 6 5 - - HYPH cord-013977-xb0r2axf 6 6 Recovered recovered JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 6 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 6 8 SIR SIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 6 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 6 10 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 6 11 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 6 12 known know VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 6 13 to to TO cord-013977-xb0r2axf 6 14 have have VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 6 15 an an DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 6 16 exact exact JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 6 17 semi semi JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 6 18 - - JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 6 19 analytical analytical JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 6 20 solution solution NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 6 21 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 7 1 In in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 7 2 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 7 3 current current JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 7 4 study study NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 7 5 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 7 6 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 7 7 approach approach NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 7 8 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 7 9 Harko Harko NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 7 10 et et NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 7 11 al al NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 7 12 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 8 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 8 2 Appl Appl NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 8 3 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 9 1 Math math NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 9 2 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 10 1 Comput Comput NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 10 2 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 1 236:184–194 236:184–194 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 2 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 3 2014 2014 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 4 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 5 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 6 generalised generalise VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 7 to to TO cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 8 obtain obtain VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 9 an an DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 10 approximate approximate JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 11 semi semi JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 12 - - JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 13 analytical analytical JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 14 solution solution NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 15 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 16 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 17 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 18 - - HYPH cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 19 Exposed exposed JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 20 - - HYPH cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 21 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 22 - - HYPH cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 23 Recovered recovered JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 24 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 25 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 27 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 11 28 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 2 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 3 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 4 curves curve NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 5 have have VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 6 nearly nearly RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 7 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 8 same same JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 9 shapes shape NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 10 as as IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 11 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 12 SIR SIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 13 ones one NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 14 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 15 but but CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 16 with with IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 17 a a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 18 stretch stretch NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 19 factor factor NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 20 applied apply VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 21 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 22 them -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 23 across across IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 24 time time NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 25 that that WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 26 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 27 related relate VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 28 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 29 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 30 ratio ratio NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 31 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 32 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 33 incubation incubation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 34 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 35 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 36 periods period NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 12 37 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 1 This this DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 2 finding finding NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 3 implies imply VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 4 an an DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 5 approximate approximate JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 6 characteristic characteristic JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 7 timescale timescale NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 8 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 9 scaled scale VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 10 by by IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 11 this this DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 12 stretch stretch NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 13 factor factor NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 14 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 15 that that WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 16 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 17 universal universal JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 18 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 19 all all DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 20 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 21 models model NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 22 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 23 which which WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 24 only only RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 25 depends depend VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 26 on on IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 27 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 28 basic basic JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 29 reproduction reproduction NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 30 number number NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 31 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 32 initial initial JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 33 fraction fraction NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 34 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 35 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 36 population population NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 37 that that WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 38 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 39 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 13 40 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 1 Compartmental Compartmental NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 2 models model NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 3 provide provide VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 4 a a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 5 key key JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 6 tool tool NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 7 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 8 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 9 disease disease NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 10 epidemiology epidemiology NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 11 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 12 studying study VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 13 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 14 transmission transmission NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 15 dynamics dynamic NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 16 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 17 various various JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 18 pathogens pathogen NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 19 [ [ -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 20 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 21 ] ] -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 22 [ [ -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 23 2 2 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 24 ] ] -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 25 [ [ -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 26 3 3 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 27 ] ] -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 14 28 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 2 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 3 - - HYPH cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 4 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 5 - - HYPH cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 6 Recovered recovered JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 8 SIR SIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 10 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 11 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 12 known know VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 13 to to TO cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 14 have have VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 15 an an DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 16 exact exact JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 17 semi semi JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 18 - - JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 19 analytical analytical JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 20 solution solution NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 21 [ [ -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 22 4 4 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 23 ] ] -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 24 [ [ -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 25 5 5 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 26 ] ] -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 27 [ [ -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 28 6 6 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 29 ] ] -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 15 30 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 1 No no DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 2 such such JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 3 solution solution NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 4 exists exist VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 5 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 6 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 7 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 8 - - HYPH cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 9 Exposed exposed JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 10 - - HYPH cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 11 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 12 - - HYPH cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 13 Recovered recovered JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 15 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 17 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 18 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 19 although although IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 20 some some DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 21 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 22 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 23 properties property NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 24 have have VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 25 been be VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 26 examined examine VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 27 using use VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 28 an an DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 29 approximate approximate JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 30 analytical analytical JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 31 approach approach NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 32 7 7 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 16 33 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 1 In in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 2 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 3 current current JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 4 study study NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 5 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 6 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 7 approach approach NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 8 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 9 5 5 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 10 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 11 generalised generalise VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 12 to to TO cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 13 demonstrate demonstrate VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 14 that that IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 15 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 16 while while IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 17 no no DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 18 exact exact JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 19 semi semi JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 20 - - JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 21 analytical analytical JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 22 solution solution NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 23 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 24 possible possible JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 25 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 26 an an DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 27 approximate approximate JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 28 one one NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 29 does do VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 30 exist exist VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 17 31 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 2 will will MD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 3 be be VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 4 demonstrated demonstrate VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 5 that that IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 6 this this DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 7 approximate approximate JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 8 solution solution NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 9 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 10 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 11 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 12 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 13 implies imply VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 14 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 15 curves curve NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 16 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 17 all all DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 18 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 19 models model NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 20 are be VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 21 simply simply RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 22 stretched stretch VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 23 or or CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 24 compressed compress VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 25 relative relative NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 26 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 27 one one CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 28 another another DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 29 by by IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 30 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 31 factor factor NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 32 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 33 where where WRB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 34 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 35 incubation incubation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 36 period period NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 18 37 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 1 1 1 LS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 2 / / SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 3 σ σ NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 4 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 5 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 6 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 7 period period NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 8 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 9 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 10 / / SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 11 γ γ NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 12 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 13 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 14 generation generation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 15 time time NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 16 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 17 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 18 / / SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 19 σ σ NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 20 + + SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 21 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 22 / / SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 23 γ γ NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 19 24 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 20 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 20 2 SIR SIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 20 3 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 20 4 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 20 5 a a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 20 6 special special JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 20 7 case case NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 20 8 with with IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 20 9 α α NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 20 10 = = SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 20 11 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 20 12 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 1 This this DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 2 property property NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 3 implies imply VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 4 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 5 time time NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 6 taken take VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 7 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 8 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 9 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 10 curve curve NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 11 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 12 peak peak VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 13 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 14 approximately approximately RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 15 universal universal JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 16 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 17 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 18 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 19 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 20 when when WRB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 21 scaled scale VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 22 by by IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 23 α α NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 21 24 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 22 1 In in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 22 2 " " `` cord-013977-xb0r2axf 22 3 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 22 4 SIR SIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 22 5 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 22 6 " " '' cord-013977-xb0r2axf 22 7 section section NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 22 8 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 22 9 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 22 10 SIR SIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 22 11 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 22 12 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 22 13 concisely concisely RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 22 14 reviewed review VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 22 15 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 22 16 extended extend VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 22 17 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 23 1 In in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 23 2 " " `` cord-013977-xb0r2axf 23 3 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 23 4 SEIR seir NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 23 5 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 23 6 " " '' cord-013977-xb0r2axf 23 7 section section NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 23 8 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 23 9 approximate approximate JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 23 10 solutions solution NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 23 11 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 23 12 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 23 13 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 23 14 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 23 15 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 23 16 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 23 17 implications implication NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 23 18 are be VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 23 19 elucidated elucidate VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 23 20 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 24 1 A a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 24 2 concise concise JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 24 3 summary summary NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 24 4 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 24 5 provided provide VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 24 6 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 24 7 " " `` cord-013977-xb0r2axf 24 8 Summary Summary NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 24 9 " " '' cord-013977-xb0r2axf 24 10 section section NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 24 11 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 1 In in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 2 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 3 SIR SIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 4 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 5 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 6 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 7 fraction fraction NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 8 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 9 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 10 population population NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 11 that that WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 12 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 13 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 15 S s NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 17 becomes become VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 18 infected infect VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 19 at at IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 20 a a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 21 rate rate NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 22 β β NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 23 = = SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 24 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 25 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 26 γ γ NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 27 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 28 where where WRB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 29 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 30 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 31 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 32 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 33 basic basic JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 34 reproduction reproduction NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 35 number number NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 25 36 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 26 1 There there EX cord-013977-xb0r2axf 26 2 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 26 3 no no DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 26 4 incubation incubation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 26 5 period period NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 26 6 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 2 fraction fraction NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 3 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 4 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 5 population population NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 6 that that WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 7 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 8 infected infect VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 9 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 10 immediately immediately RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 11 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 13 I i NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 15 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 16 a a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 17 period period NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 18 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 19 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 20 / / SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 21 γ γ NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 22 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 23 after after IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 24 which which WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 25 a a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 26 fraction fraction NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 27 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 28 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 29 population population NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 30 recovers recover VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 32 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 27 34 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 28 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 28 2 SIR SIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 28 3 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 28 4 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 28 5 described describe VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 28 6 by by IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 28 7 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 28 8 following following JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 28 9 set set NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 28 10 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 28 11 coupled coupled JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 28 12 ordinary ordinary JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 28 13 differential differential JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 28 14 equations equation NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 28 15 1,5 1,5 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 28 16 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 28 17 Review Review NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 28 18 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 28 19 Harko Harko NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 28 20 et et NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 28 21 al al NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 28 22 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 29 1 5 5 LS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 29 2 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 1 As as IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 2 a a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 3 starting starting NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 4 point point NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 5 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 6 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 7 derivation derivation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 8 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 9 5 5 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 10 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 11 made make VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 12 more more RBR cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 13 compact compact JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 14 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 15 cast cast VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 16 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 17 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 18 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 19 notation notation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 20 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 21 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 22 current current JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 23 study study NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 30 24 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 1 By by IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 2 taking take VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 3 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 4 derivative derivative NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 5 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 6 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 7 first first JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 8 equation equation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 9 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 10 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 11 2 2 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 13 with with IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 14 respect respect NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 15 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 16 time time NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 17 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 18 one one NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 19 obtains obtain VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 20 equation equation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 21 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 22 12 12 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 23 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 24 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 25 5 5 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 26 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 27 where where WRB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 28 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 29 convenience convenience NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 30 one one CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 31 uses use VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 32 shorthand shorthand NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 33 notation notation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 34 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 35 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 36 derivatives derivative NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 37 with with IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 38 respect respect NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 39 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 40 time time NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 41 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 42 one one PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 43 obtains obtain VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 44 from from IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 45 Eq Eq NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 31 46 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 2 5 5 LS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 4 an an DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 5 expression expression NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 6 that that WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 7 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 8 equivalent equivalent JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 9 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 10 but but CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 11 not not RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 12 identical identical JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 13 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 14 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 15 equation equation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 16 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 17 24 24 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 19 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 20 5 5 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 21 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 22 because because IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 23 one one PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 24 has have VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 25 chosen choose VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 26 to to TO cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 27 work work VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 28 directly directly RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 29 with with IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 30 S S NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 31 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 32 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 33 not not RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 34 S S NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 35 / / SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 36 S S NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 37 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 38 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 39 as as IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 40 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 41 independent independent JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 42 variable variable NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 32 43 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 2 preceding precede VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 3 expression expression NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 4 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 5 recognised recognise VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 6 as as IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 7 a a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 8 Bernoulli Bernoulli NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 9 differential differential JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 10 equation equation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 11 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 12 which which WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 13 may may MD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 14 be be VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 15 solved solve VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 16 to to TO cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 17 obtain obtain VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 18 an an DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 19 expression expression NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 20 that that WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 21 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 22 equivalent equivalent JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 23 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 24 but but CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 25 not not RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 26 identical identical JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 27 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 28 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 29 equation equation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 30 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 31 25 25 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 32 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 33 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 34 5 5 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 35 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 36 where where WRB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 37 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 38 initial initial JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 39 value value NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 40 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 41 S S NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 42 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 43 denoted denote VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 44 as as IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 45 S S NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 46 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 33 47 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 34 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 34 2 constant constant NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 34 3 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 34 4 integration integration NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 34 5 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 34 6 set set VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 34 7 by by IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 34 8 demanding demand VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 34 9 that that DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 34 10 S s NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 35 1 + + CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 36 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 36 2 + + CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 36 3 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 36 4 = = SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 36 5 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 36 6 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 1 Recalling recall VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 2 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 3 definition definition NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 4 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 5 φ φ NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 6 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 7 an an DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 8 expression expression NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 9 that that WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 10 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 11 equivalent equivalent JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 12 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 13 equation equation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 14 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 15 26 26 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 16 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 17 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 18 5 5 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 19 _SP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 20 where where WRB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 21 t t NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 22 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 23 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 24 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 25 initial initial JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 26 time time NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 37 27 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 2 preceding precede VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 3 integral integral NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 4 has have VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 5 no no DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 6 exact exact JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 7 analytical analytical JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 8 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 9 closed closed JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 10 - - HYPH cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 11 form form NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 12 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 13 solution solution NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 14 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 15 needs need VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 16 to to TO cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 17 be be VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 18 evaluated evaluate VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 19 numerically numerically RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 20 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 21 which which WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 22 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 23 why why WRB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 24 it -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 25 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 26 strictly strictly RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 27 speaking speak VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 28 an an DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 29 exact exact JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 30 semi semi JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 31 - - JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 32 analytical analytical JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 33 solution solution NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 34 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 35 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 36 SIR SIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 37 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 38 38 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 2 first first JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 3 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 4 third third JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 5 equation equation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 6 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 7 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 8 2 2 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 9 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 10 may may MD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 11 be be VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 12 combined combine VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 13 to to TO cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 14 obtain obtain VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 15 where where WRB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 16 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 17 initial initial JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 18 fraction fraction NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 19 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 20 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 21 population population NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 22 that that WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 23 has have VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 24 recovered recover VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 25 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 26 chosen choose VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 27 to to TO cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 28 be be VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 29 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 30 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 31 = = SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 32 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 33 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 34 which which WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 35 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 36 turn turn NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 37 implies imply VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 38 that that IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 39 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 40 initial initial JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 41 fraction fraction NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 42 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 43 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 44 population population NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 45 that that WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 46 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 47 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 48 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 49 Extension Extension NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 50 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 51 Harko Harko NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 52 et et NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 53 al al NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 39 54 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 40 1 5 5 LS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 40 2 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 41 1 By by IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 41 2 setting set VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 41 3 I -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 41 4 ′ ′ CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 41 5 = = SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 41 6 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 42 1 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 42 2 Eq Eq NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 42 3 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 43 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 43 2 2 2 LS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 43 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 43 4 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 43 5 one one PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 43 6 realizes realize VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 43 7 that that IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 43 8 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 43 9 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 43 10 curve curve NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 43 11 I -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 43 12 peaks peak NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 43 13 at at IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 43 14 S s NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 43 15 = = SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 43 16 γ γ NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 43 17 /β /β NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 43 18 = = SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 43 19 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 43 20 / / SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 43 21 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 43 22 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 43 23 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 44 1 Thus thus RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 44 2 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 44 3 Eq Eq NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 44 4 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 2 9 9 LS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 4 may may MD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 5 be be VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 6 used use VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 7 to to TO cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 8 express express VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 9 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 10 time time NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 11 taken take VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 12 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 13 I -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 14 to to TO cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 15 peak peak VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 16 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 17 where where WRB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 18 one one NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 19 assumes assume VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 20 I -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 21 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 22 ≪ ≪ CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 23 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 45 24 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 2 quantity quantity NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 3 γ γ NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 4 � � NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 5 t t NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 6 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 7 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 8 time time NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 9 interval interval NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 10 expressed express VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 11 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 12 terms term NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 13 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 14 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 15 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 16 period period NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 17 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 18 depends depend VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 19 only only RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 20 on on IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 21 two two CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 22 parameters parameter NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 23 : : : cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 24 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 25 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 26 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 27 I -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 28 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 46 29 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 47 1 Variations variation NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 47 2 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 47 3 I I NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 47 4 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 47 5 shift shift NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 48 1 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 48 2 S S NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 48 3 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 48 4 I -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 48 5 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 48 6 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 48 7 curves curve NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 48 8 back back RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 48 9 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 48 10 forth forth RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 48 11 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 48 12 time time NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 48 13 without without IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 48 14 changing change VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 48 15 their -PRON- PRP$ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 48 16 shapes shape NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 48 17 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 1 We -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 2 emphasize emphasize VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 3 a a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 4 subtle subtle JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 5 choice choice NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 6 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 7 notation notation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 8 : : : cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 9 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 10 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 11 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 12 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 13 initial initial JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 14 fraction fraction NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 15 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 16 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 17 www.nature.com/scientificreports/ www.nature.com/scientificreports/ NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 18 population population NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 19 that that WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 20 has have VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 21 recovered recover VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 22 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 23 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 24 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 25 always always RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 26 set set VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 27 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 28 zero zero CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 29 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 30 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 31 current current JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 32 study study NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 33 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 34 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 35 whereas whereas IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 36 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 37 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 38 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 39 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 40 basic basic JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 41 reproduction reproduction NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 42 number number NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 49 43 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 50 1 When when WRB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 50 2 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 50 3 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 50 4 curve curve NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 50 5 I -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 50 6 first first RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 50 7 starts start VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 50 8 to to TO cord-013977-xb0r2axf 50 9 rise rise VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 50 10 from from IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 50 11 its -PRON- PRP$ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 50 12 initial initial JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 50 13 value value NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 50 14 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 50 15 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 50 16 logarithm logarithm NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 50 17 term term NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 50 18 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 50 19 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 50 20 integral integral NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 50 21 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 50 22 Eq Eq NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 50 23 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 51 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 51 2 9 9 LS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 51 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 51 4 may may MD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 51 5 be be VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 51 6 approximated approximate VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 51 7 as as IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 51 8 ln ln NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 51 9 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 51 10 S S NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 51 11 / / SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 51 12 S S NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 51 13 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 51 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 52 1 ≈ ≈ NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 52 2 S S NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 52 3 / / SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 52 4 S S NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 52 5 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 52 6 − − NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 52 7 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 52 8 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 52 9 which which WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 52 10 allows allow VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 52 11 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 52 12 integral integral NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 52 13 to to TO cord-013977-xb0r2axf 52 14 be be VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 52 15 evaluated evaluate VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 52 16 analytically analytically RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 52 17 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 2 follows follow VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 3 that that IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 4 where where WRB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 5 we -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 6 have have VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 7 defined define VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 8 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 9 epidemic epidemic NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 10 growth growth NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 11 rate rate NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 12 as as IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 13 from from IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 14 which which WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 15 one one PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 16 obtains obtain VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 17 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 18 known know VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 19 relationship relationship NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 20 between between IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 21 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 22 basic basic JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 23 reproduction reproduction NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 24 number number NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 25 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 26 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 27 growth growth NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 28 rate rate NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 29 1,8 1,8 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 30 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 31 where where WRB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 32 D D NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 33 ≡ ≡ NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 34 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 35 / / SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 36 γ γ NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 37 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 38 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 39 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 40 period period NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 53 41 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 54 1 Seeking seek VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 54 2 an an DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 54 3 approximate approximate JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 54 4 semi semi JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 54 5 - - JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 54 6 analytical analytical JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 54 7 solution solution NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 54 8 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 2 SEIR seir NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 3 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 4 builds build VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 5 on on IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 6 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 7 SIR SIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 8 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 9 by by IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 10 considering consider VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 11 an an DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 12 additional additional JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 13 compartment compartment NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 14 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 15 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 16 fraction fraction NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 17 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 18 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 19 population population NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 20 that that WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 21 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 22 exposed expose VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 24 E e NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 55 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 56 1 : : : cord-013977-xb0r2axf 56 2 infected infect VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 56 3 but but CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 56 4 not not RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 56 5 yet yet RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 56 6 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 56 7 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 57 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 57 2 incubation incubation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 57 3 period period NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 57 4 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 57 5 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 57 6 / / SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 57 7 σ σ NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 57 8 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 2 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 3 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 4 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 5 described describe VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 6 by by IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 7 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 8 following following JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 9 set set NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 10 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 11 coupled coupled JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 12 ordinary ordinary JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 13 differential differential JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 14 equations equation NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 15 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 16 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 17 Since since IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 18 this this DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 19 set set NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 20 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 21 equations equation NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 22 does do VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 23 not not RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 24 consider consider VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 25 births birth NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 26 or or CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 27 deaths death NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 28 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 29 we -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 30 have have VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 31 S s NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 32 + + CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 58 33 E e NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 59 1 + + CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 60 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 60 2 + + CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 60 3 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 60 4 = = SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 60 5 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 60 6 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 61 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 61 2 first first JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 61 3 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 61 4 fourth fourth JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 61 5 equations equation NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 61 6 may may MD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 61 7 be be VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 61 8 combined combine VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 61 9 to to TO cord-013977-xb0r2axf 61 10 obtain obtain VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 61 11 which which WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 61 12 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 61 13 identical identical JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 61 14 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 61 15 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 61 16 SIR SIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 61 17 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 61 18 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 62 1 Again again RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 62 2 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 62 3 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 62 4 choice choice NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 62 5 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 62 6 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 62 7 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 62 8 = = SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 62 9 0 0 NFP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 62 10 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 62 11 made make VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 62 12 with with IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 62 13 no no DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 62 14 loss loss NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 62 15 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 62 16 generality generality NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 62 17 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 1 By by IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 2 combining combine VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 3 all all DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 4 four four CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 5 equations equation NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 6 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 7 one one PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 8 obtains obtain VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 9 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 10 approximation approximation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 11 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 12 taken take VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 13 that that IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 14 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 15 rate rate NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 16 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 17 change change NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 18 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 19 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 20 acceleration acceleration NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 21 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 22 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 23 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 24 vanishingly vanishingly RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 25 small small JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 26 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 27 Retaining retain VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 28 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 29 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 30 ′′′ ′′′ CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 31 term term NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 32 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 33 Eq Eq NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 63 34 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 2 17 17 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 4 would would MD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 5 lead lead VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 6 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 7 a a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 8 second second JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 9 - - HYPH cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 10 order order NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 11 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 12 non non JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 13 - - JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 14 linear linear JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 15 ordinary ordinary JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 16 differential differential JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 17 equation equation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 18 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 19 φ(S φ(S NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 20 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 21 with with IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 22 no no DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 23 known know VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 24 analytical analytical JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 25 solution solution NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 64 26 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 65 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 65 2 12 12 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 65 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 66 1 www.nature.com/scientificreports/ www.nature.com/scientificreports/ IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 66 2 Solving solve VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 66 3 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 66 4 φ φ NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 66 5 as as IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 66 6 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 66 7 " " `` cord-013977-xb0r2axf 66 8 Review Review NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 66 9 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 66 10 Harko Harko NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 66 11 et et NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 66 12 al al NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 66 13 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 67 1 5 5 LS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 67 2 " " `` cord-013977-xb0r2axf 67 3 section section NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 67 4 yields yield NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 67 5 where where WRB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 67 6 φ φ NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 67 7 0 0 NFP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 67 8 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 67 9 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 67 10 initial initial JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 67 11 value value NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 67 12 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 67 13 φ φ NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 67 14 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 2 preceding precede VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 3 expression expression NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 4 leads lead VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 5 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 6 an an DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 7 expression expression NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 8 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 9 I -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 10 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 11 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 12 terms term NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 13 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 14 S S NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 15 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 16 with with IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 17 a a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 18 yet yet RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 19 unspecified unspecified JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 20 constant constant NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 21 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 22 integration integration NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 23 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 24 φ φ NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 25 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 68 26 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 69 1 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 69 2 Let let VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 69 3 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 69 4 initial initial JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 69 5 fraction fraction NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 69 6 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 69 7 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 69 8 population population NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 69 9 that that WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 69 10 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 69 11 exposed expose VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 69 12 be be NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 69 13 E e NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 69 14 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 69 15 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 70 1 Demanding demand VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 70 2 that that IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 70 3 S s NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 70 4 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 71 1 + + CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 72 1 E e NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 72 2 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 72 3 + + CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 72 4 I i NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 72 5 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 72 6 + + CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 72 7 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 72 8 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 1 = = SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 2 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 3 yields yield NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 4 Expressions expression NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 5 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 6 E e NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 7 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 8 I -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 9 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 10 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 11 terms term NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 12 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 13 S S NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 14 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 15 are be VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 16 obtained obtain VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 17 Finally finally RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 18 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 19 S S NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 20 can can MD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 21 be be VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 22 expressed express VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 23 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 24 terms term NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 25 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 26 t t NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 27 via via IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 28 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 29 following follow VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 30 integral integral NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 31 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 32 Since since IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 33 I -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 34 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 35 ≪ ≪ CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 36 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 37 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 38 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 39 time time NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 40 taken take VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 41 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 42 I -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 43 to to TO cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 44 peak peak VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 45 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 46 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 47 preceding precede VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 48 expression expression NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 49 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 50 identical identical JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 51 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 52 Eq Eq NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 73 53 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 74 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 74 2 11 11 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 74 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 74 4 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 74 5 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 74 6 SIR SIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 74 7 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 74 8 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 74 9 except except IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 74 10 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 74 11 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 74 12 extra extra JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 74 13 factor factor NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 74 14 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 74 15 α α NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 74 16 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 75 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 75 2 should should MD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 75 3 be be VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 75 4 noted note VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 75 5 that that IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 75 6 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 75 7 upper upper JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 75 8 limit limit NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 75 9 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 75 10 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 75 11 integral integral JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 75 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 75 13 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 75 14 / / SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 75 15 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 75 16 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 75 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 75 18 assumes assume VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 75 19 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 75 20 approximation approximation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 76 1 I -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 76 2 ′ ′ CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 77 1 = = NFP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 78 1 E e NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 78 2 ′ ′ CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 79 1 = = SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 79 2 0 0 NFP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 79 3 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 80 1 However however RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 80 2 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 80 3 Eq Eq NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 80 4 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 81 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 81 2 27 27 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 81 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 81 4 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 81 5 not not RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 81 6 used use VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 81 7 to to TO cord-013977-xb0r2axf 81 8 compute compute VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 81 9 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 81 10 peak peak NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 81 11 times time NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 81 12 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 81 13 Fig Fig NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 81 14 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 82 1 2 2 LS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 82 2 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 83 1 Its -PRON- PRP$ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 83 2 only only JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 83 3 purpose purpose NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 83 4 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 83 5 to to TO cord-013977-xb0r2axf 83 6 demonstrate demonstrate VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 83 7 that that IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 83 8 one one PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 83 9 may may MD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 83 10 factor factor VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 83 11 out out RP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 83 12 αγ αγ XX cord-013977-xb0r2axf 83 13 from from IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 83 14 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 83 15 integral integral NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 83 16 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 84 1 Stating state VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 84 2 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 84 3 upper upper JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 84 4 limit limit NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 84 5 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 84 6 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 84 7 integral integral JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 84 8 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 84 9 Eq Eq NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 84 10 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 85 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 85 2 27 27 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 85 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 85 4 more more RBR cord-013977-xb0r2axf 85 5 accurately accurately RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 85 6 does do VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 85 7 not not RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 85 8 alter alter VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 85 9 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 85 10 main main JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 85 11 conclusion conclusion NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 85 12 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 85 13 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 85 14 current current JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 85 15 study study NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 85 16 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 86 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 86 2 relationship relationship NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 86 3 between between IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 86 4 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 86 5 growth growth NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 86 6 rate rate NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 86 7 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 86 8 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 86 9 basic basic JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 86 10 reproduction reproduction NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 86 11 number number NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 86 12 can can MD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 86 13 again again RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 86 14 be be VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 86 15 derived derive VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 86 16 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 87 1 Using use VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 87 2 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 87 3 same same JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 87 4 series series NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 87 5 expansion expansion NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 87 6 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 87 7 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 87 8 logarithm logarithm NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 87 9 term term NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 87 10 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 87 11 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 87 12 integral integral NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 87 13 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 87 14 Eq Eq NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 87 15 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 2 26 26 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 4 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 5 one one NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 6 obtains obtain VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 7 albeit albeit IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 8 with with IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 9 a a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 10 different different JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 11 definition definition NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 12 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 13 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 14 growth growth NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 15 rate rate NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 16 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 17 It -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 18 follows follow VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 19 that that IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 20 where where WRB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 21 D D NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 22 ′ ′ CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 23 ≡ ≡ NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 24 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 25 / / SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 26 σ σ NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 27 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 28 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 29 incubation incubation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 30 period period NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 88 31 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 89 1 When when WRB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 89 2 α α NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 89 3 = = SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 89 4 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 89 5 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 89 6 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 89 7 expression expression NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 89 8 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 89 9 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 89 10 SIR SIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 89 11 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 89 12 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 89 13 Eq Eq NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 89 14 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 90 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 90 2 14 14 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 90 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 90 4 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 90 5 recovered recover VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 90 6 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 91 1 If if IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 91 2 S s NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 91 3 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 91 4 ≈ ≈ NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 91 5 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 92 1 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 92 2 I i NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 92 3 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 92 4 ≪ ≪ CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 92 5 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 93 1 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 93 2 then then RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 93 3 one one NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 93 4 obtains obtain VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 93 5 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 93 6 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 93 7 ≈ ≈ NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 93 8 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 94 1 + + CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 94 2 � � JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 94 3 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 94 4 D d NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 94 5 + + CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 94 6 D d NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 94 7 ′ ′ CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 94 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 94 9 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 2 exact exact JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 3 relationship relationship NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 4 between between IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 5 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 6 growth growth NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 7 rate rate NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 8 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 9 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 10 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 11 has have VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 12 been be VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 13 derived derive VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 14 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 15 various various JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 16 ways way NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 17 8 8 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 19 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 20 references reference NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 21 therein therein RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 22 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 23 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 24 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 25 given give VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 26 by by IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 27 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 28 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 95 29 = = NFP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 96 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 96 2 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 96 3 + + SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 96 4 � � NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 96 5 D d NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 96 6 ′ ′ CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 96 7 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 97 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 97 2 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 97 3 + + SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 97 4 � � NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 97 5 D d NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 97 6 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 97 7 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 1 This this DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 2 equation equation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 3 accounts account VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 4 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 5 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 6 characteristic characteristic JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 7 generation generation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 8 time time NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 9 distribution distribution NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 10 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 11 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 12 models model NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 13 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 14 which which WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 15 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 16 a a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 17 convolution convolution NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 18 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 19 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 20 exponentially exponentially RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 21 distributed distribute VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 22 incubation incubation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 23 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 24 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 25 periods period NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 26 with with IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 27 mean mean JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 28 durations duration NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 29 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 30 D d NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 31 ′ ′ CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 32 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 33 D d NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 34 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 35 respectively respectively RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 98 36 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 99 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 99 2 approximate approximate JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 99 3 solution solution NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 99 4 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 99 5 Eq Eq NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 99 6 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 100 1 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 100 2 30 30 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 100 3 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 100 4 lacks lack VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 100 5 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 100 6 term term NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 100 7 2 2 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 100 8 D d NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 100 9 ′ ′ CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 100 10 D d NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 100 11 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 1 Hence hence RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 2 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 3 it -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 4 corresponds correspond VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 5 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 6 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 7 case case NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 8 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 9 an an DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 10 exponentially exponentially RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 11 distributed distribute VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 12 generation generation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 13 time time NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 14 with with IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 15 mean mean JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 16 duration duration NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 17 D d NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 18 ′ ′ CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 19 + + CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 20 D d NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 21 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 22 which which WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 23 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 24 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 25 same same JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 26 as as IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 27 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 28 solution solution NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 29 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 30 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 31 SIR SIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 32 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 33 assuming assume VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 34 an an DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 35 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 36 period period NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 37 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 38 D d NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 39 ′ ′ CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 40 + + CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 41 D. D. NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 42 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 43 27 27 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 44 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 45 has have VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 46 non non JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 47 - - JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 48 trivial trivial JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 49 implications implication NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 101 50 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 1 It -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 2 suggests suggest VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 3 that that IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 4 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 5 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 6 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 7 exposed expose VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 8 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 9 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 10 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 11 recovered recover VBD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 12 curves curve NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 13 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 14 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 15 models model NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 16 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 17 with with IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 18 different different JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 19 values value NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 20 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 21 D d NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 22 ′ ′ CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 23 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 24 D D NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 25 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 26 follow follow VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 27 approximately approximately RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 28 universal universal JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 29 shapes shape NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 30 that that WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 31 are be VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 32 stretched stretch VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 33 by by IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 34 a a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 35 factor factor NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 36 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 37 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 38 / / SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 39 α α NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 40 = = SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 41 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 42 + + CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 43 D d NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 44 ′ ′ CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 45 /D /d NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 46 relative relative JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 47 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 48 one one CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 49 another another DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 102 50 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 1 To to TO cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 2 demonstrate demonstrate VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 3 this this DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 4 property property NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 5 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 6 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 7 full full JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 8 set set NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 9 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 10 coupled coupled JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 11 equations equation NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 12 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 13 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 14 15 15 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 15 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 16 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 17 solved solve VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 18 numerically numerically RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 19 using use VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 20 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 21 solve_ivp solve_ivp JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 22 routine routine NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 23 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 24 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 25 Python Python NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 26 programming programming NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 27 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 28 24 24 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 103 29 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 104 1 www.nature.com/scientificreports/ www.nature.com/scientificreports/ NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 104 2 language language NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 104 3 suite suite NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 104 4 9 9 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 104 5 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 105 1 For for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 105 2 illustration illustration NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 105 3 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 105 4 one one PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 105 5 assumes assume VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 105 6 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 105 7 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 105 8 = = SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 105 9 2 2 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 106 1 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 106 2 I i NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 106 3 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 106 4 = = SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 106 5 10 10 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 106 6 −4 −4 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 106 7 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 1 Figure figure NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 2 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 3 shows show VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 4 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 5 solution solution NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 6 curves curve NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 7 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 8 100 100 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 9 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 10 models model NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 11 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 12 where where WRB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 13 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 14 values value NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 15 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 16 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 17 incubation incubation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 18 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 19 D D NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 20 ′ ′ CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 21 ≡ ≡ NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 22 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 23 / / SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 24 σ σ NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 25 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 26 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 27 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 28 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 29 D D NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 30 ≡ ≡ NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 31 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 32 / / SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 33 γ γ NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 34 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 35 periods period NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 36 are be VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 37 randomly randomly RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 38 drawn draw VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 39 from from IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 40 an an DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 41 interval interval NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 42 between between IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 43 2 2 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 44 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 45 5 5 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 46 days day NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 107 47 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 1 When when WRB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 2 time time NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 3 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 4 scaled scale VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 5 by by IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 6 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 7 factor factor NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 8 αγ αγ XX cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 9 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 10 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 11 100 100 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 12 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 13 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 14 exposed expose VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 15 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 16 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 17 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 18 recovered recover VBD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 19 curves curve NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 20 lie lie VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 21 approximately approximately RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 22 on on IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 23 top top NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 24 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 25 one one CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 26 another another DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 108 27 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 2 second second JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 3 implication implication NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 4 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 5 that that IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 6 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 7 time time NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 8 taken take VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 9 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 10 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 11 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 12 curve curve NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 13 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 14 peak peak VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 15 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 16 approximately approximately RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 17 universal universal JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 18 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 19 all all DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 20 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 21 models model NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 22 when when WRB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 23 scaled scale VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 24 by by IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 25 α α NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 26 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 27 expressed express VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 28 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 29 terms term NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 30 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 31 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 32 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 33 period period NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 109 34 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 110 1 In in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 110 2 other other JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 110 3 words word NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 110 4 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 110 5 αγ αγ NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 110 6 � � NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 110 7 t t NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 110 8 should should MD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 110 9 only only RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 110 10 depend depend VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 110 11 on on IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 110 12 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 110 13 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 110 14 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 110 15 I -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 110 16 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 110 17 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 1 To to TO cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 2 demonstrate demonstrate VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 3 this this DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 4 property property NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 5 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 6 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 7 full full JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 8 set set NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 9 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 10 equations equation NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 11 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 13 15 15 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 15 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 16 again again RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 17 solved solve VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 18 numerically numerically RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 19 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 20 10,000 10,000 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 21 random random JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 22 draws draw NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 23 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 24 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 25 / / SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 26 σ σ NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 27 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 28 1 1 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 29 / / SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 30 γ γ NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 31 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 32 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 33 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 34 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 35 = = SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 36 2 2 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 37 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 38 7 7 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 111 39 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 112 1 For for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 112 2 each each DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 112 3 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 112 4 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 112 5 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 112 6 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 112 7 time time NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 112 8 taken take VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 112 9 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 112 10 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 112 11 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 112 12 curve curve NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 112 13 to to TO cord-013977-xb0r2axf 112 14 peak peak VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 112 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 112 16 t t NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 112 17 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 112 18 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 112 19 calculated calculate VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 112 20 numerically numerically RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 112 21 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 1 All all DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 2 10,000 10,000 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 3 values value NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 4 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 5 t t NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 6 are be VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 7 multiplied multiply VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 8 by by IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 9 αγ αγ XX cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 10 ; ; : cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 11 two two CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 12 sets set NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 13 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 14 curves curve NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 15 with with IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 16 different different JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 17 I -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 18 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 19 values value NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 20 are be VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 21 shown show VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 22 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 23 Fig Fig NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 24 . . NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 25 2 2 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 26 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 27 illustration illustration NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 113 28 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 1 For for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 2 all all DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 3 10,000 10,000 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 4 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 5 models model NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 6 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 7 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 8 αγ αγ XX cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 9 � � NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 10 t t NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 11 values value NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 12 lie lie VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 13 approximately approximately RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 14 on on IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 15 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 16 same same JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 17 curve curve NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 18 across across IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 19 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 20 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 21 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 22 a a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 23 given give VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 24 value value NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 25 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 26 I i NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 27 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 28 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 29 demonstrating demonstrate VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 30 that that IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 31 αγ αγ XX cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 32 � � NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 33 t t NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 34 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 35 a a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 36 dimensionless dimensionless NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 37 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 38 with with IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 39 no no DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 40 physical physical JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 41 units unit NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 42 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 43 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 44 approximately approximately RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 45 universal universal JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 46 timescale timescale NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 47 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 48 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 49 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 50 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 114 51 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 1 In in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 2 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 3 current current JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 4 study study NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 5 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 6 approximate approximate JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 7 semi semi JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 8 - - JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 9 analytical analytical JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 10 solutions solution NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 11 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 12 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 13 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 14 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 15 are be VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 16 found find VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 17 by by IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 18 generalising generalise VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 19 a a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 20 previous previous JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 21 approach approach NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 22 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 23 deriving derive VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 24 an an DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 25 exact exact JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 26 solution solution NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 27 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 28 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 29 SIR SIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 30 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 115 31 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 1 This this DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 2 finding finding NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 3 implies imply VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 4 that that IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 5 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 6 entire entire JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 7 family family NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 8 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 9 susceptible susceptible JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 10 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 11 exposed expose VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 12 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 13 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 14 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 15 recovered recovered JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 16 curves curve NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 17 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 18 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 19 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 20 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 21 follow follow VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 22 approximately approximately RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 23 universal universal JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 24 shapes shape NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 25 that that WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 26 are be VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 27 stretched stretch VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 28 or or CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 29 compressed compress VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 30 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 31 relative relative JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 32 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 33 one one CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 34 another another DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 35 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 36 by by IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 37 a a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 38 factor factor NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 39 consisting consist VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 40 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 41 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 42 incubation incubation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 43 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 44 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 45 periods period NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 116 46 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 2 time time NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 3 taken take VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 4 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 5 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 6 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 7 curve curve NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 8 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 9 peak peak NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 10 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 11 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 12 characteristic characteristic JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 13 timescale timescale NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 14 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 15 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 16 system system NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 17 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 18 depends depend VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 19 only only RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 20 on on IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 21 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 22 basic basic JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 23 reproduction reproduction NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 24 number number NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 25 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 26 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 27 initial initial JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 28 fraction fraction NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 29 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 30 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 31 population population NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 32 that that WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 33 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 34 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 35 when when WRB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 36 scaled scale VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 37 by by IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 38 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 39 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 40 period period NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 41 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 42 this this DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 43 stretch stretch NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 44 factor factor NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 117 45 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 1 For for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 2 illustration illustration NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 3 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 4 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 5 basic basic JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 6 reproduction reproduction NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 7 number number NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 8 has have VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 9 been be VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 10 set set VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 11 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 12 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 13 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 14 = = SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 15 2 2 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 16 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 17 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 18 initial initial JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 19 fraction fraction NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 20 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 21 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 22 population population NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 23 that that WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 24 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 25 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 26 has have VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 27 been be VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 28 set set VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 29 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 30 I i NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 31 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 32 = = SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 33 10 10 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 34 −4 −4 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 118 35 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 1 Each each DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 2 set set NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 3 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 4 curves curve NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 5 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 6 generated generate VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 7 using use VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 8 100 100 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 9 random random JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 10 realisations realisation NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 11 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 12 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 13 incubation incubation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 14 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 15 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 16 periods period NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 17 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 18 each each DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 19 drawn draw VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 20 from from IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 21 an an DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 22 interval interval NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 23 between between IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 24 2 2 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 25 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 26 5 5 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 27 days day NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 28 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 29 illustration illustration NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 119 30 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 120 1 Figure figure NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 120 2 2 2 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 120 3 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 121 1 Time time NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 121 2 until until IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 121 3 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 121 4 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 121 5 curve curve NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 121 6 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 121 7 I i NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 121 8 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 121 9 peaks peak VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 121 10 as as IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 121 11 a a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 121 12 function function NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 121 13 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 121 14 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 121 15 basic basic JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 121 16 reproduction reproduction NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 121 17 number number NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 121 18 R r NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 121 19 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 121 20 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 122 1 In in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 122 2 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 122 3 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 122 4 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 122 5 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 122 6 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 122 7 time time NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 122 8 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 122 9 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 122 10 epidemic epidemic NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 122 11 peak peak NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 122 12 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 122 13 t t NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 122 14 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 122 15 scales scale VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 122 16 approximately approximately RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 122 17 with with IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 122 18 α α NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 122 19 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 122 20 γ γ NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 122 21 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 123 1 For for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 123 2 illustration illustration NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 123 3 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 123 4 two two CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 123 5 values value NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 123 6 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 123 7 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 123 8 initial initial JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 123 9 fraction fraction NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 123 10 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 123 11 population population NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 123 12 that that WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 123 13 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 123 14 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 123 15 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 123 16 I i NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 123 17 0 0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 123 18 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 123 19 are be VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 123 20 considered consider VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 123 21 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 1 Each each DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 2 set set NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 3 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 4 curves curve NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 5 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 6 generated generate VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 7 using use VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 8 10,000 10,000 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 9 random random JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 10 draws draw NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 11 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 12 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 13 incubation incubation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 14 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 15 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 16 periods period NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 17 from from IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 18 an an DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 19 interval interval NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 20 between between IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 21 2 2 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 22 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 23 5 5 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 24 days day NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 124 25 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 125 1 An an DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 125 2 Introduction introduction NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 125 3 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 125 4 Infectious Infectious NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 125 5 Disease Disease NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 125 6 Modelling Modelling NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 125 7 Message message NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 125 8 passing pass VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 125 9 approach approach NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 125 10 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 125 11 general general JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 125 12 epidemic epidemic NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 125 13 models model NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 126 1 Impact impact NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 126 2 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 126 3 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 126 4 infectious infectious JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 126 5 period period NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 126 6 on on IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 126 7 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 127 1 A a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 127 2 contribution contribution NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 127 3 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 127 4 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 127 5 mathematical mathematical JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 127 6 theory theory NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 127 7 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 127 8 epidemics epidemic NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 1 Exact exact JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 2 analytical analytical JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 3 solutions solution NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 4 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 5 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 6 Susceptible susceptible JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 7 - - HYPH cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 8 Infected Infected NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 9 - - HYPH cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 10 Recovered recovered JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 11 ( ( -LRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 12 SIR SIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 13 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 14 epidemic epidemic NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 15 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 16 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 17 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 18 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 19 SIR SIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 20 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 21 with with IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 22 equal equal JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 23 death death NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 24 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 25 birth birth NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 128 26 rates rate NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 1 Mathematical mathematical JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 2 models model NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 3 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 4 SIR SIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 5 disease disease NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 6 spread spread VBD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 7 with with IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 8 combined combine VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 9 non non JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 10 - - JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 11 sexual sexual JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 12 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 13 sexual sexual JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 14 transmission transmission NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 15 route route NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 16 Analytical analytical JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 17 solution solution NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 18 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 19 SEIR SEIR NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 20 model model NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 21 describing describe VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 22 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 23 free free JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 24 spread spread NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 25 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 26 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 27 COVID-19 covid-19 JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 28 pandemic pandemic NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 29 How how WRB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 30 generation generation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 31 intervals interval NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 32 shape shape VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 33 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 34 relationship relationship NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 35 between between IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 36 growth growth NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 37 rates rate NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 38 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 39 reproductive reproductive JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 129 40 numbers number NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 130 1 SciPy SciPy NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 130 2 1.0 1.0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 130 3 : : : cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 1 fundamental fundamental JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 2 algorithms algorithm NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 3 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 4 scientific scientific JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 5 computing computing NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 6 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 7 Python Python NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 8 K.H. K.H. NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 9 formulated formulate VBD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 10 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 11 problem problem NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 12 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 13 derived derive VBD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 14 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 15 equations equation NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 16 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 17 performed perform VBD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 18 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 19 numerical numerical JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 20 calculations calculation NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 21 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 22 wrote write VBD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 23 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 24 manuscript manuscript NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 131 25 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 132 1 C.L.A. C.L.A. NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 132 2 made make VBD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 132 3 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 132 4 link link NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 132 5 between between IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 132 6 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 132 7 reproduction reproduction NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 132 8 number number NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 132 9 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 132 10 growth growth NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 132 11 rate rate NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 132 12 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 132 13 checked check VBD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 132 14 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 132 15 equations equation NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 132 16 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 132 17 edited edit VBD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 132 18 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 132 19 manuscript manuscript NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 132 20 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 133 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 133 2 authors author NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 133 3 declare declare VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 133 4 no no DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 133 5 competing compete VBG cord-013977-xb0r2axf 133 6 interests interest NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 133 7 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 1 Correspondence correspondence NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 2 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 3 requests request NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 4 for for IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 5 materials material NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 6 should should MD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 7 be be VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 8 addressed address VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 9 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 10 K.H. K.H. NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 11 Publisher Publisher NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 12 's 's POS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 13 note note NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 14 Springer Springer NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 15 Nature Nature NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 16 remains remain VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 17 neutral neutral JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 18 with with IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 19 regard regard NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 20 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 21 jurisdictional jurisdictional JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 22 claims claim NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 23 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 24 published publish VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 25 maps map NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 26 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 27 institutional institutional JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 28 affiliations affiliation NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 134 29 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 135 1 Open open VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 135 2 Access Access NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 1 This this DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 2 article article NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 3 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 4 licensed license VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 5 under under IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 6 a a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 7 Creative Creative NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 8 Commons Commons NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 9 Attribution Attribution NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 10 4.0 4.0 CD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 11 International International NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 12 License License NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 13 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 14 which which WDT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 15 permits permit VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 16 use use NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 17 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 18 sharing sharing NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 19 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 20 adaptation adaptation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 21 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 22 distribution distribution NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 23 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 24 reproduction reproduction NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 25 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 26 any any DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 27 medium medium NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 28 or or CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 29 format format NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 30 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 31 as as RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 32 long long RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 33 as as IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 34 you -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 35 give give VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 36 appropriate appropriate JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 37 credit credit NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 38 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 39 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 40 original original JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 41 author(s author(s NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 42 ) ) -RRB- cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 43 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 44 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 45 source source NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 46 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 47 provide provide VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 48 a a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 49 link link NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 50 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 51 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 52 Creative Creative NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 53 Commons Commons NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 54 licence licence NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 55 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 56 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 57 indicate indicate VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 58 if if IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 59 changes change NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 60 were be VBD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 61 made make VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 136 62 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 1 The the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 2 images image NNS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 3 or or CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 4 other other JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 5 third third JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 6 party party NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 7 material material NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 8 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 9 this this DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 10 article article NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 11 are be VBP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 12 included include VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 13 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 14 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 15 article article NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 16 's 's POS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 17 Creative Creative NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 18 Commons Commons NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 19 licence licence NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 20 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 21 unless unless IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 22 indicated indicate VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 23 otherwise otherwise RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 24 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 25 a a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 26 credit credit NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 27 line line NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 28 to to IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 29 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 30 material material NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 137 31 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 1 If if IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 2 material material NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 3 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 4 not not RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 5 included include VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 6 in in IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 7 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 8 article article NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 9 's 's POS cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 10 Creative Creative NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 11 Commons Commons NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 12 licence licence NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 13 and and CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 14 your -PRON- PRP$ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 15 intended intend VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 16 use use NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 17 is be VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 18 not not RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 19 permitted permit VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 20 by by IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 21 statutory statutory JJ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 22 regulation regulation NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 23 or or CC cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 24 exceeds exceed VBZ cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 25 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 26 permitted permit VBN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 27 use use NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 28 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 29 you -PRON- PRP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 30 will will MD cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 31 need need VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 32 to to TO cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 33 obtain obtain VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 34 permission permission NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 35 directly directly RB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 36 from from IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 37 the the DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 38 copyright copyright NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 39 holder holder NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 138 40 . . . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 139 1 To to TO cord-013977-xb0r2axf 139 2 view view VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 139 3 a a DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 139 4 copy copy NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 139 5 of of IN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 139 6 this this DT cord-013977-xb0r2axf 139 7 licence licence NN cord-013977-xb0r2axf 139 8 , , , cord-013977-xb0r2axf 139 9 visit visit VB cord-013977-xb0r2axf 139 10 http://creat http://creat NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 139 11 iveco iveco NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 139 12 mmons mmons NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 139 13 .org .org . cord-013977-xb0r2axf 140 1 / / NFP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 141 1 licen licen NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 141 2 ses ses NNP cord-013977-xb0r2axf 141 3 / / SYM cord-013977-xb0r2axf 141 4 by/4.0/. by/4.0/. NNP