id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-349217-vpih1wvs	Petropoulos, Fotios	Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19	2020-03-31		.txt	text/plain	3159	185	60	Assuming that the data used is reliable and that the future will continue to follow the past pattern of the disease, our forecasts suggest a continuing increase in the confirmed COVID-19 cases with sizable associated uncertainty. While all three data patterns show an exponential increase, the trends of both the confirmed cases and the deaths were reduced in the mid of February; a second exponential increase is observed in late February and March as a result of the increased number of cases in South Korea, Iran, and Europe. The mean estimate (point forecast) for the confirmed cases ten-days-ahead was 209 thousand with the 90% prediction intervals ranging from about 38 to 534 thousand cases. However, the estimated uncertainty by splitting the data is considerably lower, possibly since the confirmed cases outside Mainland China have significantly increased only recently.	./cache/cord-349217-vpih1wvs.txt	./txt/cord-349217-vpih1wvs.txt