id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-349029-zyfop43z	Dobrovolny, Hana M.	Modeling the role of asymptomatics in infection spread with application to SARS-CoV-2	2020-08-10		.txt	text/plain	4596	233	48	In order to estimate how effective these strategies will be, we will need a better understanding of the role of asymptomatic individuals in SARS-CoV-2 spread and the effect the proportion and relative infectiousness of asymptomatics have on the time course of the epidemic. In this paper, we study a compartmental epidemic model that includes asymptomatic infections to determine the role that asymptomatic individuals might play in the spread of SARS-CoV-2. We apply our model to data from SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in California, Florida, New York, and Texas, finding that a large number of infections in these states are unreported and that relaxing social distancing measures too early will cause a rapid spike in infections driven in part by these hidden infections. For the SARS-CoV epidemics examined here, the model predicts that there are far more asymptomatic or unreported cases at the peak of the infection, suggesting that there might be widespread community transmission if stay-at-home orders are relaxed too early.	./cache/cord-349029-zyfop43z.txt	./txt/cord-349029-zyfop43z.txt