id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-339789-151d1j4n	Hong, Hyokyoung G.	Estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers underlying epidemiological processes: A new statistical tool for the COVID-19 pandemic	2020-07-21		.txt	text/plain	3934	286	60	title: Estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers underlying epidemiological processes: A new statistical tool for the COVID-19 pandemic However, time-independent parameters in the classical models may not capture the dynamic transmission and removal processes, governed by virus containment strategies taken at various phases of the epidemic. We propose a Poisson model with time-dependent transmission and removal rates to account for possible random errors in reporting and estimate a time-dependent disease reproduction number, which may reflect the effectiveness of virus control strategies. To choose the optimal number of knots for each country when implementing the spline approach, we used 5-fold cross-validation by minimizing the combined mean squared error for the estimated infectious and removed cases. Our model accommodates possible random errors and estimates a timedependent disease reproduction number, R 0 ðtÞ, which can serve as a metric for timely evaluating the effects of health policies.	./cache/cord-339789-151d1j4n.txt	./txt/cord-339789-151d1j4n.txt