id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-335404-s48psqth	Mukandavire, Zindoga	Quantifying early COVID-19 outbreak transmission in South Africa and exploring vaccine efficacy scenarios	2020-07-24		.txt	text/plain	3570	183	48	We used a mathematical model to fit to the observed cases of COVID-19 in South Africa to estimate the basic reproductive number and critical vaccination coverage to control the disease for different hypothetical vaccine efficacy scenarios. Early model estimates show that COVID-19 outbreak in South Africa had a basic reproductive number of 2.95 (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.83–3.33). Here, we adapt a susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) compartmental model to quantify early transmissibility of COVID-19 in South Africa and explore the potential utility of a vaccine in containing the disease. Following a similar approach in [37] , we use a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) within a Bayesian framework (in R FME package [38] ) to fit the model to the cumulative data of confirmed COVID-19 cases in South Africa and estimate the magnitude of the epidemic using the basic reproductive number and quantify required vaccines' attributes to stem similar outbreaks.	./cache/cord-335404-s48psqth.txt	./txt/cord-335404-s48psqth.txt