id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-289510-spmknns5	Curado, Evaldo M. F.	A discrete-time-evolution model to forecast progress of Covid-19 outbreak	2020-10-29		.txt	text/plain	5920	325	67	Here, we present a model that can easily incorporate these available data sets and is based on discrete-time equations to forecast the number of confirmed cases by Covid-19 in any given country for the next 14 days. Among its strengths, the presented model: (i) presents low relative error rates, as tested in data from Brazil, South Korea and UK; (ii) provides easily interpretable results, specifically the predicted number of infected people in the next 14 days; (iii) presents results that are directly comparable across countries; and (iv) incorporates the average time related to the disease incubation period (asymptomatic phase) and the average time related to the symptomatic phase, both parameters adjustable according to the pandemics' characteristics. With the intention to test the method and find good values for the parameters α and β, we considered our fictitious t f N ¼ 102-th day, so it is possible to compare the total number of infected people as provided by the original source (JHU) with the predicted data generated by the model.	./cache/cord-289510-spmknns5.txt	./txt/cord-289510-spmknns5.txt