id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-003507-22ylifqo	Kelly, J. Daniel	Projections of Ebola outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use in Équateur, Democratic Republic of Congo, as of May 27, 2018	2019-03-07		.txt	text/plain	4481	246	53	As of May 27, 2018, 6 suspected, 13 probable and 35 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) had been reported in Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. We modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process model that included reproduction numbers from past Ebola outbreaks and a particle filtering method to generate a probabilistic projection of the outbreak size and duration conditioned on its reported trajectory to date; modeled using high (62%), low (44%), and zero (0%) estimates of vaccination coverage (after deployment). With the stochastic model, using high, low, and zero estimates of vaccination coverage, the median outbreak sizes for probable and confirmed cases were 82 cases (95% prediction interval [PI]: 55, 156), 104 cases (95% PI: 58, 271), and 213 cases (95% PI: 64, 1450), respectively. We modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process model, parameterized by transmission rates estimated from the dynamics of prior EVD outbreaks, and conditioned on agreement with reported case counts from the 2018 EVD outbreak to date.	./cache/cord-003507-22ylifqo.txt	./txt/cord-003507-22ylifqo.txt