id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-000255-73nlxqgk	Hosseini, Parviez	Predictive Power of Air Travel and Socio-Economic Data for Early Pandemic Spread	2010-09-15		.txt	text/plain	4022	184	50	CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that strategies to prevent pandemic influenza virus emergence and spread in the future should include: 1) enhanced surveillance for strains resulting from reassortment in traded livestock; 2) rapid deployment of control measures in the initial spreading phase to countries where travel data predict the pathogen will reach and to countries where lower healthcare resources will likely cause delays in reporting. Of all the models evaluated, a multivariate model with three predictors, (1) total country-level healthcare spending per capita, (2) estimated passenger volume arriving from Mexico via direct flights (direct flight capacity), and (3) passenger volume from Mexico via indirect, or two-leg, flights (indirect flight capacity), provided the best fit to the data using AIC, as detailed under Methods (Table 1 , DAIC = 0, overall x 2 = 54.33 on 5 degrees of freedom, p-value,0.0001). We validated the model by determining how well a model fit to data up until May 8th predicted reporting dates for fourteen countries where the disease was detected between May 9 th and May 19 th (Supplemental Online Figure S2 ).	./cache/cord-000255-73nlxqgk.txt	./txt/cord-000255-73nlxqgk.txt