id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-282853-l0c69uul	Massad, Eduardo	Forecasting versus projection models in epidemiology: The case of the SARS epidemics	2005-03-30		.txt	text/plain	3085	173	56	In this work we propose a simple mathematical model for the analysis of the impact of control measures against an emerging infection, namely, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The model provides a testable hypothesis by considering a dynamical equation for the contact parameter, which drops exponentially with time, simulating control measures. In contrast, with control measures, which reduce the contact rate to about 25% of its initial value, the expected final number of cases is reduced to 1778 in Hong Kong and 226 in Toronto (Canada). The aim of this work is to provide a projection of what would have happened with the course of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic if the universal procedures to reduce contact were not implemented in the affected areas. The model projects that, in the absence of control, the final number of cases would be 320,000 in Hong Kong and 36,900 in Toronto (Canada).	./cache/cord-282853-l0c69uul.txt	./txt/cord-282853-l0c69uul.txt