id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-289422-5z012sr6	Kuniya, Toshikazu	Prediction of the Epidemic Peak of Coronavirus Disease in Japan, 2020	2020-03-13		.txt	text/plain	2124	134	64	The purpose of this study is to give a prediction of the epidemic peak for COVID-19 in Japan by using the real-time data from 15 January to 29 February 2020. In addition, we obtain the following epidemiological insights: (1) the essential epidemic size is less likely to be affected by the rate of identification of the actual infective population; (2) the intervention has a positive effect on the delay of the epidemic peak; (3) intervention over a relatively long period is needed to effectively reduce the final epidemic size. In this study, by applying the SEIR compartmental model to the daily reported cases of COVID-19 in Japan from 15 January to 29 February, we have estimated that the basic reproduction number R 0 is 2.6 (95%CI, 2.4-2.8) and the epidemic peak could possibly reach the early-middle summer.	./cache/cord-289422-5z012sr6.txt	./txt/cord-289422-5z012sr6.txt