id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-314539-6vvgov43	Chen, Zhongxiang	Forecast Possible Risk for COVID-19 Epidemic Dissemination under Current Control Strategies in Japan	2020-05-29		.txt	text/plain	3541	190	56	Firstly, the period from 6 January to 31 March 2020 was divided into four stages and the relevant parameters were estimated according to the imported cases in Japan. The basic reproduction number of the current stage is 1.954 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.851–2.025), which means COVID-19 will spread quickly, and the self-healing rate of Japanese is about 0.495 (95% CI 0.437–0.506), with small variations in the four stages. Therefore, estimation of current infected cases plays an essential role in controlling epidemic development and will help us to evaluate the strategies that should be implemented to adjust the prevention and control measures for mitigating the spread of COVID-19 in Japan. Recently, Toshkazu [5] predicted the epidemic peak of COVID-19 in Japan based on a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model. The five-day relative error of the forecasted accumulated reported cases is less than 2.5%, which means this SEIHRD model and the piecewise estimation method can be effective applied to COVID-19.	./cache/cord-314539-6vvgov43.txt	./txt/cord-314539-6vvgov43.txt