id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-000451-te75jsd3	Liu, Qiyong	Forecasting incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China using ARIMA model	2011-08-15		.txt	text/plain	2824	153	49	title: Forecasting incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China using ARIMA model In this study, we applied a stochastic autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with the objective of monitoring and short-term forecasting HFRS incidence in China. This study aimed to develop a univariate time series model for the HFRS incidence; specifically, a stochastic ARIMA model, for short-term forecasting of HFRS incidence (per 100,000 population) in China. Thus, the fitted ARIMA(0,3,1) model can be used to predict the next three years' HFRS incidence in China. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to apply ARIMA model to fit the HFRS incidence in China with as many as 34 observations at year level. A time series model in incidence forecasting of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome Forecasting incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China using ARIMA model	./cache/cord-000451-te75jsd3.txt	./txt/cord-000451-te75jsd3.txt