id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentences	flesch	summary	cache	txt
cord-315058-t7bq4yqw	Brand, Samuel P C	Forecasting the scale of the COVID-19 epidemic in Kenya	2020-04-14		.txt	text/plain	7568	432	49	Key epidemiological characteristics such as the basic reproductive number and the age-specific rate of developing COVID-19 symptoms after infection with SARS-CoV-2, were adapted for the Kenyan setting from a combination of published estimates and analysis of the age distribution of cases observed in the Chinese outbreak. In the scenario with no transmission from asymptomatics the observed epidemic was dominated by cases among the working-age population (Figure 3 ), who we estimated as having high rates of assortative (i.e. within same age-group) mixing ( Figure 4 ) and a small but not negligible risk of developing symptoms of COVID-19 after infection. In this modelling study we have integrated existing data on the social structure, and mobility, of the Kenyan population with rapidly evolving estimates of the fundamental epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 so as to make the best possible prediction of the scale of the epidemic risk that Kenya faces from the first coronavirus pandemic.	./cache/cord-315058-t7bq4yqw.txt	./txt/cord-315058-t7bq4yqw.txt