0 5-Februlary 1977, --olume l95, Number 4280 AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE Science serves its readers as a forum for the pre- sentation and discussion of important issues related to the advancement of science, including the presentation of minority or conflicting points of view, rather than by publishing only material on which a consensus has been reached. Accordingly, all articles published in Science- including editorials, news and comment, and book re- views-are signed and reflect the individual views of the authors and not official points of view adopted by the AAAS or the institutions with which the authors are affil- iated. Editorial Board 1977 WARD GOODENOUGH DONALD KENNEDY CLIFFORD GROBSTEIN NEAL E. MILLER H. S. GUTOWSKY RAYMOND H. THOMPSON N. BRUCE HANNAY 1978 RICHARD E. BALZHISER FRANK W. PUTNAM JAMES F. CROW MAXINE SINGER HANS LANDSBERG PAUL E. WAGGONER EDWARD NEY F. CARL WILLENBROCK Editorial Staff Editor PHILIP H. ABELSON Publisher Business Manager WILLIAM D. CAREY HANS NUSSBAUM Managing Editor: ROBERT V. ORMES Assistant Editors: ELLEN E. MURPHY, JOHN E. RINGLE Assistant to the Editors: RICHARD SEMIKLOSE News and Comment: JOHN WALSH, Editor; PHILIP M. BOFFEY, LUTHER J. CARTER, BARBARA J. CULLITON, CONSTANCE HOLDEN, DEBORAH SHAPLEY, NICHOLAS WADE. Editorial Assistant, SCHERRAINE MACK Research News: ALLEN L. HAMMOND, Editor; GINA BARI KOLATA, JEAN L. MARX, THOMAS H. MAUGH II, WILLIAM D. METZ, ARTHUR L. ROBINSON. EditorialAs- sistant, FANNIE GROOM Book Reviews: KATHERINE LIVINGSTON, JANET KEGG Cover Editor: GRAYCE FINGER Editorial Assistants: JOHN BAKER, ISABELLA BOUL- DIN, ELEANORE BJTZ, MARY DORFMAN, SYLVIA EBER- HART, JUDITH GIVELBER, CAITILIN GORDON, CORRINE HARRIS, NANCY HARTNAGEL, OLIVER HEATWOLE, CHRISTINE KARLIK, RUTH KULSTAD, MARGARET LLOYD, JEAN ROCKWOOD, LEAH RYAN, LoIs SCHMITT, YA LI SWIGART, ELEANOR WARNER Guide to Scientific Instruments: RICHARD SOMMER Membership Recruitment: GWENDOLYN HUDDLE; Subscription Records and Member Records: ANN RAG- LAND Advertising Representatives Director Production Manager EARL J. SCHERAGO MARGARET STERLING Advertising Sales Manager: RICHARD L. CHARLES Sales: NEW YORK, N.Y. 10036: Herbert L. Burklund, 1I1 W. 42 St. (212-PE-6-1858); SCOTCH PLAINS, N.J. 07076: C. Richard Callis, 12 Unami Lane (201-889-4873); CHI- CAGO, ILL. 60611: Jack Ryan, Room 2107, 919 N. Mich- igan Ave. (312-DE-7-4973); BEVERLY HILLS, CALIF. 90211: Winn Nance, 1 1 N. La Cienega Blvd. (213-657- 2772); DORSET, Vr. 05251: Fred W. Dieffenbach, Kent Hill Rd. (802-867-5581) EDITORIAL CORRESPONDENCE: 1515 Massachu- setts Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20005. Phones: (Area Code 202) Central Office: 467-4350; Book Re- views: 467-4367; Business Office: 467-4411; Circulation: 467-4417; Guide to Scientific Instruments: 467-4480; News and Comment: 467-4430; Reprints and Per- missions: 467-4483; Research News: 467-4321; Review- ing: 467-4443. Cable: Advancesci, Washington. Copies of "Instructions for Contributors" can beobtained from the editorial office. See also page xi, Science, 26 March 1976. ADVERTISING CORRESPONDENCE: Room 1740, 11 W. 42 St., New York, N.Y. 10036. Phone: 212- PE-6 1858. SCIE0 NCE Learning About Energy the Hard Way For more than a decade it has been obvious that the United States is destined to face enormous adjustments in its use of energy. The difficulties and costs of finding new oil and natural gas have been climbing rapidly and it is clear that potential discoveries are limited. The embargo of 1973-1974 should have led to vigorous action, but it was quickly ignored. By mid-March the acute stage of the current energy shortage will have passed. Because supplies of foreign petroleum are available, a major disaster has been avoided. A huge shortfall has been in part made good by record imports of oil. The United States is fortunate in another aspect. Although generating equipment was taxed to the utmost, the electrical utili- ties were able to avoid massive power shutdowns. And so, although domestic sources of oil and gas continue to decline, the United States will luck through another energy crisis. But other crises will come, and will probably be more severe, for even with action now, many years must elapse before the gap between domestic production and con- sumption of energy can be made to decrease substantially. In principle, conservation is the solution, with a goal of reducing energy consumption to half its present level. However, the record of the past 3 years provides little basis for hope that energy consumption can easily be cut. Industry has already made most of the simple moves such as fixing steam leaks. Those homeowners who are willing to turn down the thermo- stat have already done so. To achieve really substantial economies will require investment of as much as a thousand billion dollars or more. Even were major changes to begin now, a decade or more would have to pass before their effects would be largely felt. Still a beginning must be made, but that will evidently require more incentives than have hitherto been supplied. The people must come to understand and believe that the various forms of energy-especially those based on oil and natural gas-are going to become steadily more scarce and much more expensive. Examples of incentives would be huge taxes on gasoline and heavy autos. Conversations with people in industry indicate that new energy-saving installations would be built if funds were available at low interest rates. Such construction would employ many workers. Much of the energy that is consumed by industry is utilized for process heat. In principle coal rather than oil or natural gas could be used, and this substitution could be the fastest means for freeing supplies of natural gas and oil. However, in general, capital expenditures would be involved, and again financial incentives would speed the process. Overall, the amount of energy moved in gas pipelines is about three times that transmitted electrically. For home heating there is no easy domestic substitute for natural gas. To replace methane by electricity in homes alone would require an investment in generating plants and heat pumps amounting to several hundreds of billions of dollars. Solar heating would also involve, enormous investment. Domestic supplies of both oil and gas could be increased. For example, additional amounts of methane might be obtained from fermentation of biomass, from disposal of organic matter in sanitary landfills, from gases associated with coal, from brown shales of the Appalachian Basin and elsewhere, from the low-porosity rocks of the Uinta and other western basins, from the geopressured zones of the Gulf Coast, and from Alaska. At some time in the future there will be synthetic methane from coal. Probably most practical is natural gas to be discovered by conventional drilling. Methane from all of these sources will be expensive. The United States apparently learned nothing from the 1973-1974 em- bargo. Perhaps a second lesson will be more effective. If not, other lessons will come and they will be more harsh.-PHILIP H. ABELSON o n A p ril 5 , 2 0 2 1 h ttp ://scie n ce .scie n ce m a g .o rg / D o w n lo a d e d fro m http://science.sciencemag.org/ Learning About Energy the Hard Way PHILIP H. ABELSON DOI: 10.1126/science.195.4280.733 (4280), 733.195Science ARTICLE TOOLS http://science.sciencemag.org/content/195/4280/733.citation PERMISSIONS http://www.sciencemag.org/help/reprints-and-permissions Terms of ServiceUse of this article is subject to the is a registered trademark of AAAS.ScienceScience, 1200 New York Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20005. The title (print ISSN 0036-8075; online ISSN 1095-9203) is published by the American Association for the Advancement ofScience 1977 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science o n A p ril 5 , 2 0 2 1 h ttp ://scie n ce .scie n ce m a g .o rg / D o w n lo a d e d fro m http://science.sciencemag.org/content/195/4280/733.citation http://www.sciencemag.org/help/reprints-and-permissions http://www.sciencemag.org/about/terms-service http://science.sciencemag.org/