22 February 1974, Volume 183, Number 4126 SCIENCE .;.- .W> .i.' AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE Science serves its readers as a forum for the presentation and discussion of important issues related to the advancement of science, including the presentation of minority or conflicting points of view, rather than by publishing only material on which a consensus has been reached. Accord- ingly, all articles published in Science-including editorials, news and comment, and book reviews -are signed and reflect the individual views of the authors and not official points of view adopted by the AAAS or the institutions with which the authors al e affiliated Editorial Board 1974 ALFRED BROWN FRANK W. PUTNAM JAMES F. CROW MAXINE F. SINGER SEYMOUR S. KETY GORDON WOLMAN FRANK PRESS 1975 HERBERT S. GUTOWSKY N. BRUCE HANNAY DONALD KENNEDY DANIEL E. KOSHLAND, JR. DONALD LINDSLEY RUTH PATRICK RAYMOND H. THOMPSON Editorial Staff Editor PHILIP H. ABELSON Publisher Butsiness Manager WILLIAM BEVAN HANS NUSSBAUM Matnaging Editor: ROBERT V. ORMES Assistant Editors: ELLEN E. MURPHY. JOHN E. RtINGLE Assistant to the Editor: NANCY TEIMOURIAN News and Comment: JOHN WALSH, LUTHER J. CAR [ER, DEBORAH SHAPLEY, ROBERT GILLETTE, NICHO- LAS WADE, CONSTANCE HOLDEN, BARBARA J. CULLITON. SCHERRAINE MACK Research News: ALLEN L. HAMMOND, WILLIAM [). METZ, THOMAS H. MAUGH 11, JEAN L. MARX, ARTHUR L. ROBINSON Book Reviews: SYLVIA EBERHARt, KATHERINE LIv- INGSION. ANN O'BRIEN Cos'er Editor: GRAYCE FINGER Editorial Assistants: MARGARET ALLEN, ISABELLA BOULDIN, BLAIR BURNS, NINKIE BURNS, ELEANORE BU1Z, MARY DORFMAN, JUDITH GIVELBER, CORRINE HARRIS, NANCY HARTNAGEL, OLIVER HEATWOLE, CHRISTINE KARLIK, GINA BARI KOLATA, MARGARET LLOYD, ERIC POGGENPOHL, JEAN ROCKWOOD, PATRICIA ROWE, LEAH RYAN, LoIs SCHMITT, MICHAEL SCHWARTZ, RICHARD SEMIKLOSE, YA LI SWIGART, ELEANOR WARNER Guide to Scientific Instrumnents: RICHARD SOMMER Membership Recruitment: GWENDOLYN HUDDLE; Suibscription Records and Member Records: ANN RAGLAN D Advertising Staff Director Production Manager EARL J. SCHERAGO MARGARET STERLING Advertising Sales Manager: RICHARD L. CHARLES Sales: NEW YORK. N.Y. 10036: Herbert L. Burklund, 11 W. 42 St. (212-PE-6-1858); SCOTCH PLAINS, N.J. 07076: C. Richard Callis. 12 Unami Lane (201-889- 4873); CHICAGO, ILL. 60611: Jack Ryan, Room 2107, 919 N. Michigan Ave. (312-DE-7-4973); BEV- ERLY HILLS, CALIF. 90211: Winn Nance, Ill N. La Cienega Blvd. (213-657-2772) EDITORIAL CORRESPONDENCE: 1515 Massa- chusetts Ave., NW, Washington. D.C. 20005. Phones: (Area code 202) Central Office: 467-4350; Book Re- views: 467-4367; Business Office: 467-4411; Circula- tion: 467-4417; Guide to Scientific Instruments: 467- 4480; News and Comment: 467-4430; Reprints and Permissions: 467-4483; Research News: 467-4321; Reviewing: 467-4440. Cable: Advancesci, Washington. Copies of "Instructions for Contributors" can be obtained from the editorial office. See also page xv. Science, 28 December 1973. ADVERTISING COR- RESPONDENCE: Room 1740, 11 W. 42 St., New York, N.Y. 10036. Phone: 212-PE-6-1858. Out of the Energy Crunch by 1976 At the moment, the chief hope for an amelioration of the energy crisis lies in an easing of the oil embargo, but valves that can be opened can be closed. Solemn agreements with the oil producing and exporting countries, ostensibly valid for decades, have been scrapped in weeks. The public and the economy cannot long tolerate the uncertainties of being a Yo-Yo in the hands of others. Prior to the embargo, we were importing 35 percent of our consump- tion. If we were to lower that to 20 percent, consumers would pay less for hydrocarbons, foreign exchange problems would ease, and we would no longer need to obtain oil from the Arabs. Such a major step to energy independence could and should be taken by 1976. The quickest path toward balancing supply and demand is conservation combined with the replacement of use of hydrocarbons by coal. Thus far, the main burden of conservation has been carried by the public, which consumes directly only a minor fraction of the energy. The major potential for quick savings of hydrocarbons lies with industry. It is the largest consumer of energy; it has substantial technical resources; and, with costs soaring, it has incentives to seek economies. Like the ptublic, industry generally has governed its behavior on the assumption of cheap energy. Thus it has much room for improvement. All of industry has not been asleep. Two good examples of organiza- tions with foresight and ingenuity are DuPont and Dow. Both companies have emphasized conservation of energy in their plant designs and operation. During the past decade, DuPont increased its volume of products 100 percent, while energy used rose only 50 percent. DuPont has advised other large consumers about conservation through a con- sultant service. Broad experience has shown that significant conservation at an industrial plant will, on the average, result in a 15 percent reduc- tion in the plant's total energy consumption, and about half the saving can be achieved without new investment.* At Dow Chemical during 1972, the company achieved a 10 percent reduction in energy used while increasing yield. The company had as its goal a like reduction in 1973.t Another way of conserving hydrocarbons is to avoid burning them merely to produce heat. "One of the quickest and most effective ways to reduce short-falls in gas and oil is to substitute coal for them under electric utility and industrial boilers. Approximately 65 percent of the natural gas used goes to the electric and industrial sectors. Some 30 percent of the oil used goes to the same sectors. ..."t Thus far, the Administration has not been even-handed in its efforts to meet the energy crisis. The consumer has been the target of ex- hortations, shortages, and higher costs. Industry, and especially the utilities, which usually can pass on higher prices, have been largely protected from shortages. By concentrating more attention on industry and the utilities, by in- voking some of the can-do attitudes of World War II, by setting up a priority system to expedite procurement of scarce items, by unleashing coal as a primary energy source, and by making its use mandatory in some applications, an effective government could get us out of the energy crisis within 2 years. It could free us from any need to use oil from undependable sources, and our example and reduced imports would contribute to loosening the worldwide grip of the oil cartel. -PHILIP H. ABELSON * D. H. Dawson, Context 2, 17 (1973). t J. C. Robertson, Chem. Eng. 81, 104 (21 Janu- ary 1974). t Report of the Cornell Workshops on the Major Issues of a National Energy Research and Development Program (College of Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y., rev. ed., 1973), p. 24. The report of the Corneul workshops provides an excellent summary of many aspects of the energy problem. It was prepared for the Atomic Energy Commission. Copies can be obtained from the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, Technical Information Center, P.O. Box 62, Oak Ridge, Tenn. 37830. o n A p ril 5 , 2 0 2 1 h ttp ://scie n ce .scie n ce m a g .o rg / D o w n lo a d e d fro m http://science.sciencemag.org/ Out of the Energy Crunch by 1976 Philip H. Abelson DOI: 10.1126/science.183.4126.707 (4126), 707.183Science ARTICLE TOOLS http://science.sciencemag.org/content/183/4126/707.citation PERMISSIONS http://www.sciencemag.org/help/reprints-and-permissions Terms of ServiceUse of this article is subject to the is a registered trademark of AAAS.Scienceof Science, 1200 New York Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20005. The title (print ISSN 0036-8075; online ISSN 1095-9203) is published by the American Association for the AdvancementScience 1974 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science o n A p ril 5 , 2 0 2 1 h ttp ://scie n ce .scie n ce m a g .o rg / D o w n lo a d e d fro m http://science.sciencemag.org/content/183/4126/707.citation http://www.sciencemag.org/help/reprints-and-permissions http://www.sciencemag.org/about/terms-service http://science.sciencemag.org/