19 April 1974. Volume 184, Number 4134 SCIENCE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE Sciernce serves its i-eaders as a foruin for the lpitesentation and discussion of important issues lelated to the advancement of science, including the presentation of minority or conflicting point! of view, rather than by ptublishing only nmaterial on which a consensus has been reached. Accoid- ingly, all articles puLblished in Scienice-including editorials, news and comment, and book reviews -are signed anti leflect the individual views of the authors and not official points of view adopted bs the AAAS ot- tic instituitions w ith sw hich the aLthoil S ar e afliliated Editorial Board ALFEL) uBRosWN JANIEs F. CROWN SEWMOUlt S. Kui F liSNIK PRFSS 1974 FlwsNK WV. I'UINAMN N1AXINE F- SINGER GORIDON WOLNIAN 1975 H-l Rut RI S. CGUIOWsSKY N. BRUCJE HANNAY DoNALD KENNEDY D)%Nmi F. KOSHLAND, JR. DONAsiu) LiNDSLi-s RUtIh PAIRICK; Rs-kYNIOND 11, Ttio'apSoN Editorial Stalt Editor I'HiLItl H. ABELSON Puiiblis%her Blu siniess Ma,aiage, W%iiiisu 1tI.V,\N llANS NUSSBsUNI Mtaaging Ediioo: R1ot) RII V. ORNsES Assistant Editors: ELLEN E. MURPHY. JOHN E. I1 N(L1 Assistauns to the 1 hOsts NAN(A TTEiIOURIAN P'sIRI( i Ross E Neuws adtl ( omzmient: JOhiN WvALSH, LUTHER J. CAIuIER, DEBiORAtH SHAPLEY, IROBERr GILLErTE, NICHO- LAS WADE, CONSTANCE HOLDEN, BARBRRA J. CULLITON. SCHERRAINE NMACK Rlesearuh Newts: ALLEN L. IIANINIONI), WILLIAMN F). NLEIz, TiioN.ss 11. Msu(it. 11, JEAN L. NMARX, ARiotiui L. IR1IRiNSON Book Review s: SYLVIA5 EBIERH SRi. Ktit i NI is IN(SIOtN, ANN O'BRILN Coi er Eflitor: GKRAYCE FINGEIt Edlitoricl As.i.tstunts: NMA5RGARE'i ALLEN, ISWELLA BOULDIN, BLAIR BURNS, NINKIE BURNS, ELEANORE B3UTZ, IARY DORFMAN, JUDITH GIVELBER, CORRINE HARRIS, NANCY HARTNAGEL, OLIVER HEATWOLE, ChIRISIINE KARLIK, GINA BARI KOLATA, MARGARET LLOED, ERIC POGGENPOHL, JEAN ROCKWOOD, LEAH RN AN, Lois SCHNUTT, MICHAEL SCHWARTZ, RICHARD SFN1IKLOSF, YA 1-1 SWIGART, ELEANOR WARNER C,ide to Scititifit Ml.strumoents: IICHARD SOMMtER .Vlemuber stip Rectt oit'llntt: GWSLNDOLYN HUDDLE; .Sub.sriptioti 1 tot I, intlRIeosn et Records: ANN G1t %i N 1) Ad%ertising Staff D)ire clor Production Manaager EARI. J. SLLERASO MARGA.REI SIEISLING Adl eti.siig Sale.s Malutagert IICHARD L. CHAIRLI S Sailes: NLEV \ORK. N.Y. 10036: Herbeit L. BuiIkiund. 11 W. 42 St. (212-PE-6-1858); SCO1CH PLAINS, N.J. 07(076: C. Rticlhai-d Callis, 12 Unami Lane (201-889- 4873); CHICAGO, ILL. 60611: Jack Ryan, Roomn 2107, 919 N. Micliigan Ave. (312-DE-7-4973); BEV- ERLY HILLS, CALIF. 90211: Winn Nance, 1It N. La Cienega Blvd. (213-657-2772) EDITORIIAL CORRESPONDENCE: 1515 Massa- chusetts Ave., NW, Washington. D.C. 20005. Phones: (Area code 202) Central Office: 467-4350; Book Re- views: 467-4367; Business Office: 467-4411; Circula- tion: 467-4417; Cuide to Scientific Instruments: 467- 4480; News and Comment: 467-4430; Reprints and Permissions: 467-4483; Research News: 467-4321; Reviewing: 467-4440. Cable: Advancesci, Washington. Copies of "Insti-uctions for Contributors" can be obtained fionm the editorial office. See also page xv, Science, 29 March 1974. ADVERTISING CORRE- SPONDENCE: Room 1740, 11 W. 42 St., New York, N.Y. 10036. Phone: 212-PE-6-1858. Gasoline Recently, Professor Marvin Paul of the City Colleges of Chicago sug- gested to Scienice that we devote an entire issue to energy. The idea was received with skepticism, but consultation with readers scattered across the United States caused LIs to proceed. The decision was taken Febru- ary 4. Publication of the issue at this time was made possible by unl- usually good cooperation of both contributors and staff. The content of this issue was chosen to present material relevant to important public decisions of the next few years. Some such topics have been recently treated in Science: and repetition here was unwarranted. Other topics will be dealt with later. One important matter not covered specifically in the following articles is gasoline and the automobile. Special notice seems desirable, for those long lines at the service stations are telling us something. When people are willing to appear at 5 a.m. at a station that is not scheduled to open until 8 a.m., they convey a message about the importance that many people attach to their automobiles. In part the attachment is economic. To many people, auto transportation is essential to their livelihood. In part the attachment is emotional, as Kenneth Boulding suggests in an article in this issue. Whatever the source of the demand, it would be politically impossible to force people this summer to get along on sup- plies as limited as those of FebruLary 1974. In future years as people adjust, as they change to vehicles consuming less gasoline, the ac- ceptable level of supplies m,ay drop. For this year and probably the next few years, a minimum acceptable daily consumption averaged over the whole year is about 6.2 million barrels a day or about 5 percent less than we consumed in 1973. Such a level would entail tension and gruLmbling. With present-day refinery practice, a demand of 6.2 million barrels a day for gasoline fixes a minimum value for the input of crude oil. In typical instances, 48 percent of the crude petroleum is converted to gtasoline. Thus to supply the minimum demand for gasoline, something like 13 million barrels of petroleum must be processed. Our total con- sumption of oil and its products has been averaging about 17 million barrels a day and our total production of crude oil and condensate has been about 11 million barrels a day. These figures indicate the central importance of gasoline consumnption in dictating needs for crude oil. They also show that, in order merely to obtain enough gasoline, large quantities of gasoline or crude oil must be imported. There are, of course, other important uses of the gasoline chemicals in oil that will increase the lower limit on our need for oil. Because of the central role of gasoline in energy problems, especial ef- forts should be made both to decrease demand and increase supply. Had we been driving smaller, less gas-consuming cars, there would have been no energy crisis. Some other forms of transportation consume less gasoline, and their use should be encouraged. In principle, the oil companies could increase the yield of gasoline from crude oil. This wouLld require changes in refineries. Today about 10 percent of the energy of crude oil is used in providing heat for the refining processes. In principle, this heat could be furnished by coal. Through more intense input of hydrogen in the cracking process, larger yields of gasoline could be obtained. One refinery expert has guessed that yields might be raised to as high as 75 percent from the present 48 percent. Such a shift would entail other shifts in the produLct patterns and in the consumption of hydrocarbons. The barriers to increased yields are costs and time, but these can and should be overcome. Petroleum is too important to be used merely as a source of heat.-PHILIP H. ABELSON * For a list of seleted material rclated to energy that has appeared in .Scienice. see page 386 of this isstue. o n A p ril 5 , 2 0 2 1 h ttp ://scie n ce .scie n ce m a g .o rg / D o w n lo a d e d fro m http://science.sciencemag.org/ Gasoline Philip H. Abelson DOI: 10.1126/science.184.4134.245 (4134), 245.184Science ARTICLE TOOLS http://science.sciencemag.org/content/184/4134/245.citation PERMISSIONS http://www.sciencemag.org/help/reprints-and-permissions Terms of ServiceUse of this article is subject to the trademark of AAAS. is a registeredScienceAdvancement of Science, 1200 New York Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20005. The title (print ISSN 0036-8075; online ISSN 1095-9203) is published by the American Association for theScience 1974 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science o n A p ril 5 , 2 0 2 1 h ttp ://scie n ce .scie n ce m a g .o rg / D o w n lo a d e d fro m http://science.sciencemag.org/content/184/4134/245.citation http://www.sciencemag.org/help/reprints-and-permissions http://www.sciencemag.org/about/terms-service http://science.sciencemag.org/