29 November 1974. Volume 186, Number 4 AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE Science serves its readers as a forum for the presentation and discussion of important issues related to the advancement of science, including the presentation of minority or conflicting points of view, rather than by publishing only material on which a consensus has been reached. Accord- ingly, all articles published in Science-including editorials, news and comment, and book reviews- are signed and reflect the individual views of the authors and not official points of view adopted by the AAAS or the institutions with which the authors are affiliated. Editorial Board '974 ALFRED BROWN JAMES F. CRow SEYMOUR S. KETY FRANK PRESS HRBERr S. GUTOWSKY N. BRUCE HANNAY DONALD KENNEDY DANIFL E. KOSHLAND, JR. FRANK W. PUTNAM MAXINE F. SINGER GORDON WOLMAN f975 DONALD LINDSLEY RUTH PATRICK RAYMOND H. THOMPSON Editorial Staff Editor: PHILIP H. 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Phones: (Area code 202) Central Office: 4674350; Book Re- views: 467-4367; Business Office: 467-4411; Circula- tion: 467-4417; Guide to Scientific Instruments: 467- 4480; News and Comment: 467-4430; Reprints and Permissions: 467-4483; Research News: 467-4321; Reviewing: 467-4440. Cable: Advancesci. Washington. Copies of "Instructions for Contributors" can be obtained from the editorial office. See also page xv. Science, 28 June 1974. ADVERTISING CORRE- SPONDENCE: Room 1740, 11 W. 42 St., New York, N.Y. 10036. Phone: 212-PE-6-1858. SCIE:NCEt166 On Incrementing a Hurricane Scientific studies of national decision-making have shown that democ- racies tend to abhor comprehensive planning and major shifts in strategy, preferring instead to "increment" or muddle through, making adjust- ments through a series of small steps aimed at moving away from a mess rather than at moving toward clearly stated, positive goals. Thus, a study of our country's federal budget shows that the allotment for most federal agencies will usually be within 10 percent of last year's- come hell or high water. National priorities may change, new crises may be identified; but as a rule agencies entrusted with new missions will grow only slowly, while the custodians of obsolescent missions and downgraded priorities are likely to continue to draw "their" billions. It has been argued that it is the genius of democratic policy-making that it takes into account the large variety of needs and interests repre- sented in the populace, and does not lend itself to a sudden shift to one side to the neglect of others. Thus, it is "undemocratic" to suggest cutting the NASA budget by a factor of 4 while quadrupling that of the Office of Energy. This would be "unfair" and unsettling to the industries that grew up around the space effort and to the congressional districts in which they are located. Gradual transitions, which do occur, allow for less painful adjustments. Finally, master plans often do not work anyhow, the future is too complex to be anticipated and molded, today's grand designs are tomorrow's discarded charts. Muddling through, the incrementalists conclude, is not just a fact of life, but the best way to live. While much of what the incrementalists say is valid, there are moments when muddling through just will not do to get a country out of a serious predicament. France discovered this when it was invaded in 1939. The United States realized it had to double the defense budget, within one year, in terms of percentage of the gross national product, at the onset of the Korean War. The energy crisis has so far elicited chiefly rather modest attempts at muddling. A year after the crisis broke we still have no national policy, let alone a program commensurate with the problem. The ideas being kicked around, which are a long way from attaining even the status of policies, are quite incremental in nature. Project Independence, aimed at making us self-reliant in 20 years, is little more than a slogan. Major decisions about the sources of energy to focus on, how to develop them, even whether independence is worth the gigantic costs it would exact, have in effect not been made. Most importantly, the American people have not yet been prepared for the fact that whichever way we turn-toward consuming a good deal less energy or paying much more for its development-the American way of life will have to be significantly adjusted over the next decade. Estimates of how much Project Independence will cost run to $700 billion. While incrementing might well be the genius of democracy under most circumstances, to try to muddle through a hurricane is folly. The nation must be told that this crisis is not temporary and that it will require a not trivial reduction in the American standard of living, albeit not a radical one. It will require more master planning and national coordination than we tend to welcome in peacetime. It will require more leadership and less incrementation.-AMITAI ETZIONI, Professor of Sociology, Columbia University, and Director, Center for Policy Re- search, Inc., 475 Riverside Drive, New York 10027 For sttidies on incr-ementing, see Richard Fenno, The Power of tlte Puirse (Little, Bi-own, '9oston, 1966) and Aaron Wildawsky and Arthur Hammond, "Comprehensive vs. Incre- mental Budgeting in the Department of Agriculture," Administrative Scieni e Quearter!l', vol. 10 (1965). For an analysis of the demilocratic basis, see Charles Lindblom, The ltItelli- gence of Democracy (Free Press, New York, 1965). For critiqtue, see Amiiitai Ftzioni. I/lie A4cive Societr (Free Press. New York, 196f), chapters 11 aind 12. o n A p ril 5 , 2 0 2 1 h ttp ://scie n ce .scie n ce m a g .o rg / D o w n lo a d e d fro m http://science.sciencemag.org/ On Incrementing a Hurricane Amitai Etzioni DOI: 10.1126/science.186.4166.783 (4166), 783.186Science ARTICLE TOOLS http://science.sciencemag.org/content/186/4166/783.citation PERMISSIONS http://www.sciencemag.org/help/reprints-and-permissions Terms of ServiceUse of this article is subject to the is a registered trademark of AAAS.Scienceof Science, 1200 New York Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20005. 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