finalDoc.pdf C E P A L Review Director R A U L P R E B I S C H Technical Editor A D O L F O G U R R I E R I U N I T E D N A T I O N S ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA SANTIAGO, CHILE / DECEMBER 1980 C E P A L Review N u m b e r 12 D e c e m b e r 1980 C O N T E N T S N o t e b y the E d i t o r P r e s e n t d e v e l o p m e n t styles and environmental problems Mostafá K. Tolba 9 T h e interaction b e t w e e n styles of d e v e l o p m e n t and the environment in Latin America Osvaldo Sunkel 15 C o m m e n t s on the article " T h e Interaction b e t w e e n Styles of D e v e l o p m e n t and t h e E n v i r o n m e n t in Latin America" C o m m e n t s b y Aníbal Pinto C o m m e n t s by Jorge Sábato C o m m e n t s by Gabriel Valdés C o m m e n t s by Jorge Wilheim 51 B i o s p h e r e and d e v e l o p m e n t Raúl Prebisch 69 T h e e n v i r o n m e n t in the political arena Marshall Wolfe 85 D e v e l o p m e n t strategies with moderate energy requirements P r o b l e m s a n d a p p r o a c h e s Ignacy Sachs 103 D e v e l o p m e n t and environment: the Brazilian case Fernando H. Cardoso 111 T h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l d i m e n s i o n in agricultural d e v e l o p m e n t in Latin America Nicolo Gligo 129 E n v i r o n m e n t a l factor, crisis in the centres and change in i n t e r n a t i o n a l relations of the peripheral countries Luciano Tomassini 145 C o m m e n t s on Peripheral Capitalism and its Transformation C o m m e n t s b y Lucio Geller C o m m e n t s by José Ibarra C o m m e n t s b y P e d r o Vuskovic f ' 5 CEPAL REVIEW April 1981 D e v e l o p m e n t strategies with moderate energy requirements Problems and approaches Ignacy Sachs* In this short article, t h e author seeks to outline his c e n t r a l ideas on t h e energy crisis. Fundamentally, h e s t r e s s e s that t h e crisis has three d i m e n s i o n s : the f i n i t e n e s s of natural resources and t h e deterioration of t h e e n v i r o n m e n t , criticism of the " c o n s u m e r soci- e t y " a n d t h e rising cost of p e t r o l e u m . U n d e r these c i r c u m s t a n c e s , it is u r g e n t to formulate and imple- m e n t d e v e l o p m e n t strategies b a s e d on moderate e n e r g y r e q u i r e m e n t s . T h e p o s s i b l e options are varied, as are the policy m e a s u r e s w h i c h m i g h t b e a p p l i e d ; in this connexion, h e d e s c r i b e s six levels for acting upon the d e m a n d for e n e r g y , r a n g i n g from t h e elimination of waste to a p r o f o u n d c h a n g e in values which would make pos- s i b l e a 'different t y p e of d e v e l o p m e n t ' based on the transformation of t h e prevailing life styles. Among o t h e r actions a i m e d at affecting t h e d e m a n d for e n e r g y (to w h i c h h e attaches t h e greatest impor- t a n c e ) , h e m e n t i o n s t h o s e relating to spatial organi- zation a n d t h e readaptation of transport systems. W i t h regard to actions to influence supply, h e s t r e s s e s t h e i m p o r t a n c e of technological pluralism w h i c h w o u l d allow e n e r g y sources to b e d e v e l o p e d a n d u t i l i z e d in the m a n n e r b e s t suited to each nation- a l , r e g i o n a l o r local situation b y avoiding t h e un- critical a d o p t i o n of inappropriate energy strategies. It is n o t easy to formulate and carry out innovative s t r a t e g i e s w h i c h c o m b i n e t h e characteristics of ef- ficiency, v i a b i l i t y a n d sustainability in the econom- ic, socio-Rolitical a n d ecological s p h e r e s , but this is an u n a v o i d a b l e necessity for t h e present. •Director of the Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, Paris. I The three energy crises T h e e n e r g y crisis is o n t h e agenda of all discus- sions r e g a r d i n g t h e future of the world econo- my, t h e N e w International Economic Order a n d national d e v e l o p m e n t strategies. In fact, w e a r e facing t h r e e separate b u t coincident c r i s e s . T h e ecological awareness which devel- o p e d o v e r t h e last two decades m a d e it very c l e a r that, in t h e final analysis, the ecological l i m i t s to u n i n t e r r u p t e d economic growth may b e manifested through undesirable and dan- g e r o u s c h a n g e s in climate and in the major natural cycles as a result of the excessive a m o u n t of carbon dioxide released into the a t m o s p h e r e by the combustion of fossil fuels. N u c l e a r e n e r g y in turn raises well-known q u e s t i o n s , to w h i c h w e are far from having reli- a b l e a n d reassuring answers. T h e r e is n o reason to accept t h e apocalyp- tic vision of t h e i m m i n e n t disappearance of c o n v e n t i o n a l energy resources, nor to an- n o u n c e that ecological disaster is nigh. W e are still a l o n g way from t h e outer limits, if they exist. N e v e r t h e l e s s , on ecological grounds a d r a s t i c c h a n g e m u s t take place in man's behav- iour in t h e u s e of fuels and all other potentially scarce, n o n - r e n e w a b l e resources whose extrac- t i o n r e q u i r e s increasing quantities of energy d u e to t h e d e p l e t i o n of more conveniently lo- c a t e d , h i g h - c o n t e n t mineral reserves. W e must d r a w t h e necessary conclusions from the finite- n e s s of o u r p l a n e t , of w h i c h w e h a v e b e c o m e vividly a w a r e , in a historical paradox, as a result of m a n ' s first flights to t h e moon. In t h e long t e r m , t h e survival of the h u m a n race will d e p e n d on its ability to moderate and make m o r e efficient t h e u s e of fuels, and to replace t h e m b y o t h e r forms of r e n e w a b l e energy. O u r p e r i o d marks t h e start of a transition to an industrial civilization based on the direct or i n d i r e c t u s e of solar e n e r g y , which alone can b e u s e d continuously. T h e challenge is w h e t h e r this transition will r e p r e s e n t a step backwards in t e r m s of social justice and the material well- b e i n g of all p r e s e n t and future inhabitants of t h e p l a n e t . T h i s implies more e q u i t a b l e access to b o t h r e n e w a b l e and non-renewable re- 104 CEPAL REVIEW N.° 12 / December 1980 sources, and their rational use from a very broad social standpoint based on ethical princi- ples of synchronic solidarity with the present generation as well as diachronic solidarity with future generations, thus transcending the narrow, profit-oriented approaches and depre- datory attitudes to resources stemming from the pursuit of immediate economic gains that do not take social and ecological costs into consideration. The second crisis, closely connected with the first, is that of the 'consumer society' based on the squandering of abundant and cheap energy resources without which both the large- scale production of fairly abundant manufac- tured articles and life styles characterized by the private automobile and the widespread use of air transport would be impossible, Interna- tional cultural and consumption patterns have had an enormous demonstration effect on the élites of the Third World, with well-known social consequences: the transplanting of highly capital- and energy-intensive technol- ogies, which are the only ones available for producing this basket of consumer goods and which displace the labour force and aggravate still further the inequitable distribution of in- come. Thus, within the periphery the imitative model of growth may be seen to incorporate an element of structural crisis which the availabil- ity of cheap energy has accentuated in the extent to which it led to the replacement of locally abundant factors of production by other imported ones. Significantly, the consumer society began to be questioned even in the central countries, although for ethical and ideological reasons there, because of its inability to solve pressing social problems despite radical changes in styles and standards of living caused by un- precedented economic expansion during the second half of the twentieth century, as well as the high ecological and psychological cost of accelerated urbanization. Quality of life is not necessarily a function of income levels or per capita energy consump- tion, although these factors should not be un- derestimated. The industrialized countries confronted the latest recession without solving various structural problems: the trend towards chronic unemployment, which is also the result of the excessive replacement of labour by energy and the lack of social control over the direction of technological progress; the high cost and inefficiency of welfare state institu- tions; the disorientation of educational sys- tems; a general sense of alienation, etc. Far from being an exclusive characteristic of the Third World, the negative aspects of develop- ment are universal and may coexist perfectly well with periods of rapid growth, high average levels of income and a type of energy consump- tion which places thousands of 'mechanical slaves' at the service of each citizen. Even where it was considered desirable, the consumer society model lost a great deal of its viability due to the third energy crisis after 1973 caused by the considerable increase in relative petroleum prices and, by extension, the cost of all energy sources as a result of the action taken by OPEC. The time of cheap energy came to an end. Following the latest decisions by OPEC (1980), the relative price of petroleum more than made good the losses suf- fered between 1950 and 1973, and everything indicates that the trend towards moderate in- crease will continue. An initial result of the growing cost of pe- troleum was to make several alternative energy sources, both conventional and non-conven- tional, economically viable. Trends in the in- stallation costs of nuclear power stations are a case in point. Solar energy, for its part, will never be cheap; its ecological and social advan- tages must be offset by a fairly high economic price. Thus, a fundamental characteristic of the current transition is that, for the first time in history, the replacement of one source of ener- gy by another will be the opposite of what took place in the past with coal in relation to fire- wood, and subsequently, with petroleum in relation to coal: the new energy sources will be considerably more expensive. Under these circumstances, energy must be saved and we must learn to use it efficiently and to take advantage of its alternative sources in all countries; this applies even to the major oil producers and exporters which are interest- ed in maximizing their foreign exchange earn- ings and/or preserving hydrocarbon reserves DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES WITH MODERATE ENERGÏ REQUIREMENTS / Ignacy Sachs 105 with a view to future price increases. The argu- ment applies a fortiori to the countries which import petroleum, many of which face balance- of-payments difficulties due to the growing cost of importing energy resources. The current situation accordingly gener- ates a great deal of tension between the Third World countries affected by the high cost of energy imports and the smaller group of major petroleum exporters among them. This tension may be lessened, if not totally eliminated, by more decisive solidarity from OPEC aimed at assisting the most hard-hit countries. At the same time, however, a double platform of com- mon interests among all the Third World coun- tries is emerging. On the one hand, OPEC's action has political implications which go far beyond the problem of petroleum prices: it fos- ters new conditions for the Third World's dif- ficult struggle for effective control over its natural resources. On the other, the Third World could very well use this transition to- wards renewable energy sources and the use of biomass as raw material in order to create the basis for a new tropical industrial civilization adapted to its ecosystems and founded on local technologies, or at least less dependent for technology on the major industrial centres which previously achieved world domination through the coal and petroleum civilization, and are now trying to maintain it through a monopoly of nuclear technologies. With the financial resources from sales of petroleum and the human resources already available in sev- eral Third World countries, a broad interna- tional research and experimentation program- me could be set up aimed at new and innova- tive forms ofusing renewable natural resources to satisfy social needs within an eco-develop- mental perspective, that is to say, socially des- irable, economically viable and ecologically sound development. II Energy and development strategies It's an ill wind that blows nobody good. The energy resource crisis calls for a comprehen- sive overhauling of development strategies rather than sectoral responses. Actions aimed at improving supply are certainly an important aspect of the problem, but by no means the only one. Actions with respect to demand have per- haps even greater potential. In other words, itis not a question merely of replacing expensive and/or scarce petroleum by the provision of other energy resources in a classic operation of import substitution, accepting the coefficient of elasticity of demand for energy resources, estimated using past performance, as a limit. On the contrary, an effort must be made to dis- sociate the growth rate of the economy from the rate of increase of the demand for energy re- sources. This implies that the global strategy must be redefined, for the simple reason that energy plays a part in all human activities and consequently it is part of any development pro- cess, sound or unsound. Consequently, our problem becomes that of identifying develop- ment strategies with moderate energy resource requirements. The first task is to determine the levels at which the options will be explored and wherein lie the principal variables linking so- cioeconomic development objectives with those involving the moderate use of energy. We will begin by presenting a possible approach to the analysis of the various ways to moderate demand, a subject which deserves attention for two reasons: it is much less developed than the study of the range of alternative energy sup- plies, and it is a good way in which to approach the overall problems which interest us here. Next we will discuss the energy implications of models of territorial occupation and of relations between higher and lower economic levels. Finally, we shall talk about technological plu- ralism in energy production and the criteria which must govern the selection of technology. We do not aim to provide a solution in these 106 p a g e s , b u t rather to furnish a list of problems c o n n e c t e d w i t h t h e formulation of strategies w i t h m o d e r a t e e n e r g y resource requirements. 1. Six levels of action to affect demand H o w far is it p o s s i b l e to restrict t h e d e m a n d for e n e r g y p r o d u c t s w i t h o u t simultaneously re- q u i r i n g from t h e population radical changes in life styles a n d austerity for which it is not p r e p a r e d ? T h e r e is no easy r e s p o n s e to this question b e c a u s e in societies characterized by pro- n o u n c e d social asymmetry it is hardly possible to s p e a k of t h e population as a homogeneous w h o l e . T h e austerity imposed on the minority m a y b e t h e p r e r e q u i s i t e for improving the con- s u m p t i o n p a t t e r n s of t h e majority. O n the other h a n d , it is simplistic to think that the reduction of t h e d e m a n d for e n e r g y requires either a radi- cal c h a n g e in life styles or a decrease in con- s u m p t i o n . T h e dissociation of economic g r o w t h rates from energy d e m a n d may b e a c h i e v e d t h r o u g h t h e six types of action out- l i n e d b e l o w : (a) T h e elimination of waste in the strict s e n s e of t h e term, through increased social and i n d i v i d u a l d i s c i p l i n e ; (b) I m p r o v e m e n t of t h e functioning of e x i s t i n g p r o d u c t i o n and consumption systems t h r o u g h m o r e efficient organization, education w i t h social content, application of software, or- g a n i z a t i o n of t i m e , etc. (c) T h e r e s t r u c t u r i n g of t h e production sys- t e m w i t h a v i e w to saving energy, either direct- ly t h r o u g h n e w technology or indirectly t h r o u g h t h e materials u s e ; (d) T h e r e s t r u c t u r i n g of t h e consumption s y s t e m 1 b y d e s i g n i n g products (automobiles, e l e c t r i c a l h o u s e h o l d appliances, dwellings, etc.) m e e t i n g l o w e r energy-consumption stan- d a r d s ; (e) T h e exploration of alternative means of m e e t i n g t h e s a m e social n e e d s ; for example, i T h e introduction of t h e concept of the consumption s y s t e m i s j u s t i f i e d b y symmetry with t h e production system a n d b y t h e fact that t h e h o u s e h o l d goods it comprises re- d u c e savings by c o m p e t i n g with investment in the produc- tion sector. C E P A L REVIEW N.° 12 / December 1980 a l t e r n a t i v e systems of transport or collective or i n d i v i d u a l h o u s i n g . (f) Finally, a change in values, which may modify b e h a v i o u r and consequently the struc- t u r e of social d e m a n d . I n c l u d e d h e r e are all efforts to promote voluntary austerity, self-limi- tation of t h e currently excessive levels of mate- rial c o n s u m p t i o n , migration back to rural areas b y g r o u p s of urban residents, etc. Various types of actions are appropriate at different levels. Levels (a) and (b) in principle d o n o t r e q u i r e any significant investment: they b e l o n g to t h e s p h e r e of ' p u r e ' technological a n d organizational progress. On the other hand, t h e types of technological progress envisioned in levels (c) a n d (d) do r e q u i r e changes in plant a n d e q u i p m e n t a n d a continuous effort to re- search a n d d e v e l o p n e w processes and prod- u c t s . C o n s e q u e n t l y , they correspond to situa- tions of rapid growth and add two n e w d i m e n - sions to t h e criteria for evaluating technology: t h e e n e r g y c o n t e n t of the products and t h e en- ergy c o n s u m p t i o n standards of the goods pro- d u c e d . L e v e l (e) has common characteristics w i t h (d) a n d (f). Like level (f), it already implies a c h a n g e of values, b u t it also d e p e n d s on the d e s i g n of n e w consumption systems, that is to say, an extension of t h e approach applied to the d e s i g n of n e w products. In practice, an impor- t a n t d i m e n s i o n to consider is the comparison b e t w e e n systems of collective and individual transportation, housing and organization of s e r v i c e s , a l t h o u g h t h e r e is also room to imagine n e w individual systems, from the widespread u s e of t h e bicycle to t h e invention, in countries a l r e a d y possessing an extensive road infra- s t r u c t u r e , of a n e w u r b a n vehicle, electrical or m e c h a n i c a l , and m u c h smaller and more eco- nomical than t h e automobile. This last level is b y far t h e most important from the point of view of e t h i c s a n d ideology; simultaneously, how- e v e r , it is t h e most difficult to change in view b o t h of t h e conservative dynamism of the élites in p o w e r a n d t h e force of attraction exercised b y t h e c o n s u m e r i s t model on those still living far b e l o w t h e levels of e v e n basic satisfaction of t h e i r material n e e d s , a n d w h o rightly aspire to a m i n i m u m of comfort. This attraction explains t h e distortions in t h e consumption patterns of t h e u r b a n population in Latin America, w h e r e DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES WITH MODERATE ENERGY REQUIREMENTS / Ignacy Sachs 107 d u r a b l e goods, i n c l u d i n g a u s e d automobile, a r e often a c q u i r e d at t h e e x p e n s e of a sacrifice i n v o l v i n g an e v e n greater deterioration in the a l r e a d y low levels of n o u r i s h m e n t . T h e propos- al of following a p a t h differing from the histori- cal e x p e r i e n c e of t h e industrialized countries, a n d t h u s a v o i d i n g t h e d e a d e n d s of consumer- ism w h i l e finding a different type of develop- m e n t , s e e m s to b e the greatest c h a l l e n g e , and an a l t e r n a t i v e to t h e technological optimism of t h e a d v o c a t e s of m i m e t i c growth. But criticism of t e c h n o l o g i c a l o p t i m i s m must not lead to e x a g g e r a t e d social optimism. T h e road leading to a different t y p e of d e v e l o p m e n t will b e r o u g h a n d long. T h e significance of t h e q u e s - t i o n i n g of t h e c o n s u m e r i s t model in the indus- trial c o u n t r i e s t h e m s e l v e s is e n h a n c e d in this w o r l d context. 2. Spatial organization and the energy field S p a c e is a key variable in t h e energy field, e s p e c i a l l y in countries with large areas, b e - c a u s e t h e t r a n s p o r t sector is a great c o n s u m e r of e n e r g y s i n c e t h e v o l u m e of freight and the dis- t a n c e o v e r w h i c h it is transported d e p e n d s on t h e spatial configuration of the economy and t h e society. T h i s situation is aggravated by the t y p e of t r a n s p o r t s e l e c t e d , as Latin America suffers from u n d e r d e v e l o p m e n t in the field of railway, river a n d maritime transport, whereas b o t h t h e truck a n d t h e p l a n e occupy an unwar- r a n t e d position as a result of a mistaken and i m i t a t i v e c o n c e p t i o n of modernity. F o r t h e s e r e a s o n s , it is necessary to analyse transport flows, c o m b i n i n g t h e approaches of socioeco- n o m i c p l a n n i n g and spatial organization so as to isolate t h e points at which intervention is p o s s i b l e . T h e g e o g r a p h y of transport m u s t not b e a c c e p t e d as i m m u t a b l e ; on the contrary, it m u s t b e c h a n g e d b y e l i m i n a t i n g r e d u n d a n t t r a n s p o r t a t i o n as far as possible. H e r e w e see a n o t h e r i n s t a n c e w h e r e action to affect d e m a n d is of g r e a t e r i m p o r t a n c e than more traditional action to affect s u p p l y and the technological r e s t r u c t u r i n g of transport systems. H o w d o e s o n e define r e d u n d a n t freight flows? T o do so w o u l d r e q u i r e an in-depth s t u d y on t h e d e g r e e of internal articulation in local e c o n o m i e s a n d t h e nature of their external r e l a t i o n s w i t h t h e regional, national a n d world e c o n o m y . T h e extreme models, both equally harmful, a r e an archipiélago of totally autarkic local e c o n o m i e s , and the centre-periphery m o d e l , not only on a world scale b u t also repro- d u c e d at t h e national level. T h e p e r i p h e r y is c o m p l e t e l y subordinated, and trade is asym- m e t r i c a l : t h e p e r i p h e r y provides raw material a n d d e p e n d s heavily on the centre with regard to c o n s u m p t i o n , i n c l u d i n g that of basic food- stuffs. T h i s results in an extremely high volume of transport, a n d c o n s e q u e n t l y of consumption of e n e r g y resources, which could b e r e d u c e d t h r o u g h t h e consolidation of the local econo- m i e s so as to take maximum advantage of t h e c o m p l e m e n t a r y nature of various primary and s e c o n d a r y activities, while at the same time e n h a n c i n g t h e d e g r e e of processing in the case of r a w materials. T h e asymmetrical relations b e t w e e n t h e c e n t r e a n d t h e p e r i p h e r y and the dominant position of t h e major industrial and commercial systems h a v e another c o n s e q u e n c e for the l e v e l of supply: t h e underestimation of the p o t e n t i a l of local resources which, u n d e r eco- n o m i c a l l y satisfactory conditions, are able to s u s t a i n small-scale production which would d e c r e a s e t h e d e g r e e of d e p e n d e n c e on the ex- terior. T h i s w o u l d certainly b e the case in the p r o d u c t i o n of e n e r g y resources. W h e n , for e x a m p l e , a unified electricity grid fed by h u g e hydroelectric or nuclear power stations is e n v i s i o n e d , m a n y local opportunities are over- looked: small hydroelectric plants, small-scale coal m i n i n g , organic r e s i d u e s from crop-farm- i n g a n d stock-raising production, urban resi- d u e s , t h e specific biomasses of each ecosystem, g e o t h e r m a l e n e r g y and w i n d energy w h e r e climatic conditions permit, specific uses of solar e n e r g y , etc. 3 . Technological pluralism T h i s leads us to the third group of variables in t h e field of e n e r g y supply. W e should warn that s i n g l e a n d perfect solutions do not and will not exist. It is necessary to learn to use the broadest p o s s i b l e range of technological pluralism, from t h e s t a n d p o i n t of primary energy sources, scales of production and t h e adaptation of spe- cific forms of supply to a d e m a n d which has b e e n t h o r o u g h l y analysed in order to distin- 108 CEPAL REVIEW N.° 12 / December 1980 g u i s h various types of useful energy. T h e anal- ysis of e n e r g y options cannot b e subordinated solely to narrow economic criteria. T h e social a n d ecological implications of the p l a n n e d projects a n d p r o g r a m m e s must also b e consid- e r e d , a n d conventional conclusions must b e g u a r d e d against. Certain forms of utilizing re- n e w a b l e e n e r g y may have adverse ecological a n d social repercussions. Examples are hardly n e c e s s a r y : dams constructed without taking t h e n e c e s s a r y ecological precautions; large- scale u s e of biomass energy which may dis- p l a c e s u b s i s t e n c e crops while making agricul- t u r e i n o r d i n a t e l y technical a n d capital-inten- sive; t h e formulation of ultrasophisticated c e n t r a l i z e d systems of tapping solar energy by s a t e l l i t e s , etc. Technological determinism m u s t n o t b e a c c e p t e d in any form. T h e dogma of e c o n o m i e s of scale has already caused much h a r m in T h i r d World countries, b u t this does not justify r e p l a c i n g it with the myth of 'soft' tech- n o l o g y w h o s e w e a k n e s s e s are belied by al- l u r i n g definitions. D u e t o a series of circumstances, t h e difficult b u t e s s e n t i a l task of mobilizing public opinion in favour of a 'different type of d e v e l o p m e n t ' m a y t a k e t h e form of a search for d e v e l o p m e n t s t r a t e g i e s w i t h m o d e r a t e energy r e q u i r e m e n t s . M e a n w h i l e , w e primarily n e e d a b e t t e r under- s t a n d i n g of t h e links b e t w e e n the variables in t h e e n e r g y s p h e r e , as t h e y have b e e n defined in this work. A good way to achieve this goal m i g h t b e t o c o n s i d e r t h e major production a n d c o n s u m p t i o n systems from this point of view, that is to say: (1) u r b a n systems and their energy pro- files; (2) industrial systems; (3) i n t e g ra t e d food production systems; (4) e n e r g y systems, stressing the ecologi- cal, social a n d e n e r g y cost of producing and t r a n s p o r t i n g e n e r g y ; (5) strategies of territorial occupation, re- An initial step in the desired direction w o u l d b e to consider existing energy flows in such a way as to allow them to b e rationalized from t h e standpoint both of d e m a n d (elimina- tion of w a s t a g e , profitability of waste heat) a n d of s u p p l y (replacement of conventional energy b y solar p o w e r ; simultaneous generation of h e a t a n d electricity). It is likewise necessary to p u r s u e technological research on non-conven- tional e n e r g y sources while the social sciences c o n c e n t r a t e on the study of the institutional, e c o n o m i c a n d social obstacles to the introduc- tion of n e w e n e r g y sources, and of t h e policy i n s t r u m e n t s that w o u l d b e r e q u i r e d to promote t h e m effectively. T h e efficient m a n a g e m e n t of technological pluralism will d e p e n d upon t h e s t r e n g t h e n i n g of local autonomy in rural and u r b a n z o n e s . At the same time the harmoniza- tion of local initiatives calls for central planning c a p a b l e of maintaining a global, long-term v i e w of t h e p r o b l e m s and also able to support a n d p r o m o t e local innovations by making the r e q u i r e d resources available. s u m i n g t h e fundamental discussion l a u n c h e d b y C E P A L fifteen years ago on vertical and horizontal d e v e l o p m e n t ; (6) m o d e l s of t h e u s e of social time, with p a r t i c u l a r reference to the forms of leisure w h i c h h a v e important energy implications a m o n g t h e u p p e r classes w h o are accustomed to leave t h e city d u r i n g t h e w e e k e n d s and s p e n d t h e i r vacations abroad. T h e s e s t u d i e s m a y simultaneously serve as an introduction to t h e discussion on alterna- tives a n d to d e v i s e experiments on a natural scale d e s i g n e d to test the technical and ecolog- ical efficiency of alternative energy systems, t h e social, economic and ecological efficiency of alternative d e v e l o p m e n t strategies with m o d e r a t e e n e r g y r e q u i r e m e n t s , and the opera- tional efficiency of decentralized institutional d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g models supported b y t h e se- l e c t i v e intervention of t h e central authority. I l l Conclusion: Notes towards a programme DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES WITH MODERATE ENERGY REQUIREMENTS / Ignacy Sachs 109 T h e p r o g r a m m e sketched out here is ambi- t i o u s , b u t t h e starting point already exists in the s e m i n a r s organized in 1979 by C E P A L and the o t h e r U n i t e d Nations regional commissions, in collaboration with U N E P , on t h e subject of d e - v e l o p m e n t styles a n d alternative models of re- s o u r c e u s e . It is now a question of pursuing the s a m e line of study, concentrating on the rela- tion b e t w e e n d e v e l o p m e n t and its energy as- p e c t s a n d evaluating the solutions envisaged from t h e standpoint of social appropriateness, e c o n o m i c viability and ecological sustainabili- ty.