15 August 1980, Volume 209, Number 4458 AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR The THE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE Science serves-its readers as a forum for the presenta- Some tion and discussion of important issues related to the ad- decade vancement of science, including the presentation of mi- nority or conflicting points of view, rather than by pub- populat lishing only material on which a consensus has been food prreached. Accordingly, all articles published in Science- including editorials, news and comment, and book re- treated views-are signed and reflect the individual views of the authors and not official points of view adopted by the federal AAAS or the institutions with which the authors are af- The Gic filiated. OOn 2 Editorial Board 1980: RICHARD E. BALZHISER, WALLACE S. BROECK- p ER, CLEMENT L. MARKERT, FRANK W. PUTNAM, BRY- ment th ANT W. ROSSITER, VERA C. RUBIN, MAXINE F. SINGER, ity and PAUL E. WAGGONER, F. KARL WILLENBROCK 1981: PETER BELL, BRYCE CRAWFORD, JR., E. PETER authori; GEIDUSCHEK, EMIL W. HAURY, SALLY GREGORY ad KOHLSTEDT, MANCUR OLSON, PETER H. RAVEN, WIL- LIAM P. SLICHTER, FREDERIC G. WORDEN the func Publisher mation WILLIAM D. CAREY Some Editor part of PHILIP H. ABELSON the spri Editorial Staf at abou Managing Editor Business Manager projecti ROBERT V. ORMES HANS NUSSBAUM would r Assistant Managing Editor Production Editor JOHN E. RINGLE ELLEN E. MURPHY 1979 gc News Editor: BARBARA J. CULLITON consum News and Comment: WILLIAM J. BROAD, LUTHER J. CARTER, CONSTANCE HOLDEN, ELIOT MARSHALL, R. continu JEFFREY SMITH, MARJORIE SUN, NICHOLAS WADE, saying JOHN WALSH. Editorial Assistant, SCHERRAINE MACK Research News: BEVERLY KARPLUS HARTLINE, at least RICHARD Aw KERR, GINA BARI KOLATA, JEAN L. formati MARX, THOMAS H. MAUGH II, ARTHUR L. ROBINSON. Editorial Assistant, FANNIE GROOM older D, Consulting Editor: ALLEN L. HAMMOND billion t Associate Editors: ELEANORE BUTZ, MARY DORF- MAN, SYLVIA EBERHART, RUTH KULSTAD A ch Assistant Editors: MARTHA COLLINS, CAITILIN GOR- chemic, DON, STEPHEN KEPPLE, EDITH MEYERS, Lois SCHMITT Book Reviews: KATHERINE LIVINGSTON, Editor; partmei LINDA HEISERMAN, JANET KEGG Letters: CHRISTINE GILBERT century Copy Editor: ISABELLA BOULDIN spread. Production: NANCY HARTNAGEL, JOHN BAKER; YA P Li SWIGART, HOLLY BISHOP, ELEANOR WARNER; oil . . . MARY MCDANIEL, JEAN ROCKWOOD, LEAH RYAN, scientifi SHARtON RYAN Covers, Reprints, and Permissions: GRAYCE FINGER, chemist Editor; CORRINE HARRIS, MARGARET LLOYD Guide to Scientific Instruments: RICHARD G. SOMMER By the Assistant to the Editors: JACK R. ALSIP terprise Membership Recruitment: GWENDOLYN HUDDLE Member and Subscription Records: ANN RAGLAND icals, ir EDITORIAL CORRESPONDENCE: 1515 Massachu- became setts Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20005. Area code 202. General Editorial Office, 467-4350; Book Reviews, Defo] 467-4367; Guide to Scientiflc Instruments, 467-4480; of the c News and Comment, 467-4430; Reprints and Per- missions, 467-4483; Researcl4 News, 467-4321. Cable: zon Val Advancesci, Washington. For "Instructions for Contrib- utors," write the editorial office or see page xi, Science, rate of 27 June 1980. informa BUSINESS CORRESPONDENCE: Area Code 202. Membership and Subscriptionl: 467-4417. Amazot Advertising Representatives stopped Director: EARL J. SCHERAGO The r Production Manager: GINA REILLY continu Advertising Sales Manager: RICHARD L. CHARLES Marketing Manager: HERBERT L. BURKLUND (LDC's Sales: NEW YORK, N.Y. 10036: Steve Hamburger, 1515 price of Broadway (212-730-1050); SCOTCH PLAINS, N.J. 07076: C. Richard Callis, 12 Unami Lane (201-889-4873); CHI- corresp CAGO, ILL. 60611: Jack Ryan, Room 2107, 919 N. Mich- croplan igan Ave. (312-337-4973); BEVERLY HILLS, CALIF. 90211: Winn Nance, 111 N. La Cienega Blvd. (213-657- and soil 2772); DORSET, VT. 05251: Fred W. Dieffenbach, Kent The r Hill Rd. (802-867-5581). ADVERTISING CORRESPONDENCE: Tenth floor, culties 1515 Broadway, New York, N.Y. 10036. Phone: 212- inaccurn730-1050. SCIENCE ?llobal 2000 Report e parts of the world will probably reach limits to growth in the next or two. The reasons are well known-a 3 percent annual increase in tion leads to a doubling in about 24 years. Such a rate of increase in roduction cannot be sustained indefinitely. The problem has been many times, including studies by the Club of Rome. On 24 July the government got into the act with a report of about 800 pages entitled obal 2000 Report to the President. 3 May 1977 President Carter called for "a one year study of the le changes in the world's population, natural resources and environ- rough the end of the century." The Council on Environmental Qual- the Department of State were designated as lead agencies and were ized to call on other appropriate federal agencies for assistance. A of portions of the report produced after 3 years reveals more about ctioning of the federal government than it conveys new reliable infor- about the future of the world. e of the agencies responded quickly while others were slow. Thus, the material is outdated. The energy projections were made in ing of 1978 before the Iran crisis. At that time oil prices seemed stable It $13 a barrel. Accordingly, the Department of Energy (DOE) made ions of energy use on the basis that, in constant dollars, the price remain $13 a barrel until 1990. The drastic change that occurred in )es largely unrecognized, as does the current sharp decline in U.S. iption of oil. In 1978 the common view was that oil production would e to increase until it peaked in about 1990. But experts are now that the peak probably occurred in 1978. The material also contains two other significant errors. The oil in place at Athabasca and other ions in the region is now estimated at 1300 to 2400 billion barrels (the- XOE figure was 895 billion barrels). That in Venezuela is placed at 700 to 3000 billion barrels (the DOE estimate was 200 billion barrels). apter on environmental projections has a section on "The use of als in the development of societies" in which one of the State De- nt employees provided this gem: "It was not until the end of the 19th that the use of chemicals in society began to become wide- .... This development coincided with the discovery that crude could also be used as a new source of supply of chemicals. A new .ic discipline emerged, to expand the utility of crude oil: organic try." In point of fact, organic chemistry began in 1828 with Wohler. 1880's the German chemical industry was a billion-dollar-a-year en- (in 1880 dollars). It was producing a great variety of organic chem- ncluding dyestuffs from coal tar. Use of petroleum as a feedstock important only in the 1930's. restation is very serious in parts of the world. However, the author hapter on forestry has made questionable statements about the Ama- lley. He quotes an estimate that the area is being deforested at the 4 percent a year, with half the forest to be removed by 2000. My Lnt at the Brazilian Embassy scoffed, "Has the man flown over the In?" He went on to state that road-building there has almost I-the energy crisis has caused a shift in priorities. report has other deficiencies of analysis and consistency. It projects led fast growth in gross national product in less-developed countries ) without adequate discussion of the impact of sharp increases in the f oil. It projects virtually unchecked population growth in LDC's and onding increases in food production while emphasizing losses in Id due to desertification, deforestation, water logging, urbanization, ilerosion. report is correct in emphasizing that the world faces decades of diffi- and some of its sections are well done. But outdated material and, acies detract from its value.-PHILIP H. ABELSON o n A p ril 5 , 2 0 2 1 h ttp ://scie n ce .scie n ce m a g .o rg / D o w n lo a d e d fro m http://science.sciencemag.org/ The Global 2000 Report PHILIP H. ABELSON DOI: 10.1126/science.209.4458.761 (4458), 761.209Science ARTICLE TOOLS http://science.sciencemag.org/content/209/4458/761.citation PERMISSIONS http://www.sciencemag.org/help/reprints-and-permissions Terms of ServiceUse of this article is subject to the trademark of AAAS. is a registeredScienceAdvancement of Science, 1200 New York Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20005. 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